US intel: Iran still has major missile capabilities despite five weeks of war

U.S. intelligence officials estimate that the Islamic Republic of Iran still retains roughly half of its prewar missile launchers, CNN reported overnight Thursday into Friday. Despite a month of intense war, the U.S. report believes the Iranian regime still has considerable firepower, including thousands of suicide drones, in its offensive inventory.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source told CNN, “It is still capable of causing destruction in the region.” Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted maritime traffic through the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, a key route that normally carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, with commercial shipping now operating at only a fraction of its usual levels.

Israeli and U.S. intelligence assessments differ on how much of Iran’s missile‑launching capability remains intact after weeks of joint strikes. Israeli officials assess that only about 20 % to 25 % of Iran’s launchers are still operational, excluding systems that have been damaged or buried in underground facilities targeted by strikes.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that Iran has been “decimated” and vowed to complete the offensive campaign, Operation Epic Fury, soon.

An intelligence source responded to Trump's address to the American people on Wednesday.

“We can keep hitting them, I have no doubt about that, but you are completely crazy if you think this can be done in two weeks,” he said, emphasizing that U.S. forces require more time to demolish Tehran’s military capabilities fully.

While the amount of Iran’s remaining offensive capabilities remains disputed, there has been a significant decline in the number of missiles and drones it has been launching at Israel and the Gulf states in recent days.

U.S. CENTCOM Chief Admiral Brad Cooper reported in early March that Iranian missile launches had decreased by 90% as a result of the U.S. and Israeli aerial campaigns.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir also noted at the time that the U.S. and Israel had jointly succeeded in eliminating much of Iran’s offensive military capabilities.

“This is a very significant achievement that reduces harm to the home front and saves many lives. However, this is an ongoing effort, and I emphasize that the threat has not yet been removed – every missile is lethal and poses a danger,” Zamir said.

Iran reportedly began the conflict with around 2,500 missiles, but many have been fired or destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes over the past month. Israeli intelligence has briefed cabinet ministers that Tehran likely retains only 300 to 400 ballistic missiles, a sharp reduction that may explain why Iran has been conserving its arsenal and firing fewer missiles than in the war’s opening days.