Iran talks face delays caused by desire to keep supreme leader hidden from Israeli strikes

Negotiations between the United States and the Iranian regime have been hampered by poor communication with the new leader, who is hiding in fear of an Israeli airstrike, CBS News reported Sunday. 

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the airstrike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Feb. 28, at the outset of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. 

Intelligence reports indicate that the younger Khamenei was receiving medical treatment for some time following those strikes. He has not been seen or heard since the strikes that killed most of his family and several of the regime’s top military and security officials. 

While some news analysts have speculated that Mojtaba could be incapacitated, recent U.S. intelligence reports indicate he is in hiding in an undisclosed location and communicating only through a network of couriers, CBS reported. 

Intelligence assets within Iran's government assisted Israel and the U.S. in eliminating most of the regime’s top leadership in the first few days of the war. As a result, those responsible for decision-making have reportedly adopted extreme security measures to avoid the risk of assassination, rarely coming out into daylight. 

According to U.S. officials cited by CBS News, the extreme security measures have severely disrupted communication within Iran’s leadership, with senior officials rarely speaking directly to one another or to Khamenei, which may be slowing ongoing negotiations.

“Watching them try to figure out how to talk to each other is almost like watching a sitcom. They are completely exasperated,” an official said. 

Messages to and from Khamenei reportedly must pass through a labyrinth of couriers to obscure his exact location. 

“This is why you see people saying things like, 'The supreme leader has agreed to the framework,’ or 'We're waiting to hear back on the final deal points.’ Every piece of information he receives is dated and there's a lot of latency to his responses,” one official said. 

The communication delays have reportedly fueled frustration within the Trump administration over the slow pace of negotiations, with U.S. President Donald Trump remarking that Iranian officials “have no idea who their leader is.” 

Some analysts have assessed that the country is being led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is using Khamenei as a figurehead. That perception intensified after public disagreements emerged between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf over aspects of the negotiations with the U.S.

Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group, believes Khamenei is being increasingly influenced by the IRGC. 

“Khamenei’s not calling the shots, it’s the small clique of Revolutionary Guards leaders who have been working together for a long time – the likes of Ghalibaf, Vahidi and Zolghadr,” Vaez told the Financial Times. “The fundamental questions have not been answered – will he re-emerge?” 

However, Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic and political scientist, disagreed, saying that while Khamenei is likely listening to the IRGC, he is "not under their thumb, I think that’s an exaggeration.” 

Nasr also admitted that the IRGC is seeking to demonstrate that “they are not running the show and [Khamenei is] not just a figurehead.” He believes the absence of a firm ceasefire and the continued threat of possible Israeli strikes will deepen uncertainty surrounding Khamenei’s condition and the extent of his control over the regime.