New poll: Netanyahu’s Likud slips after Iran ceasefire as Israelis back continued Hezbollah strikes

Fresh poll results released on Thursday indicated a decline in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party following the announcement of a two-week temporary ceasefire between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The Channel 12 poll also found that many Israelis view the conflict with Tehran as highly significant and express skepticism toward the ceasefire, with some seeing it as giving Iran time to regroup. At the same time, 79% of respondents said they support continued military action against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon, which has also called for Israel’s destruction.

According to the survey, if elections were held now, Netanyahu’s Likud would drop from 27 to 25 seats in the Knesset. Likud fell from 28 seats last week to 25 seats, according to Kan News. By contrast, the far-right Jewish Power party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, rose in the poll from 8 to 10 seats. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party fell below the electoral threshold and would not enter parliament if elections were held now.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s (conservative) opposition party was projected to receive 22 seats, two more than a week ago. The right-wing opposition party Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Liberman, was projected to receive nine seats, one more than last week.

Overall, the polls suggest the ceasefire with Iran has bolstered opposition parties. The Kan poll projected 59 seats for the opposition, Channel 12 projected 60, and Channel 13 projected 55. However, all of the results showed that the opposition parties would fail to secure the minimum 61 Knesset seats needed to form a new narrow majority government, with Netanyahu's coalition remaining even further from that mark.

Israel’s next parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 2026.

The Office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (PMO) in Jerusalem expressed its support for U.S. President Trump’s two-week ceasefire with the Iranian regime.

“Israel also supports the US effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran's Arab neighbors and the world. The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals, shared by the US, Israel and Israel's regional allies, in the upcoming negotiations,” the PMO stated.

It remains unclear whether Netanyahu fully supports the ceasefire or whether his public statement was aimed at avoiding potential diplomatic friction with the Trump administration. However, the polls suggest many Israelis are dissatisfied with the decision to agree to a ceasefire at a time when Israeli and U.S. forces were seen as having momentum against Iran and its weakened military capabilities.

The Israeli public appears divided over the outcome of the conflict with Iran. In a Kan poll, 58% of respondents said the U.S. and Israel did not win the war, while 25% said they did and the rest were unsure. A Channel 12 poll found that 30% believed Israel and the U.S. won, 19% said Iran won, and 40% said neither side emerged victorious. An additional 11% said they did not know.

Earlier polls during the Iran war showed that Netanyahu and Likud were strengthened during the conflict. Following a long period of decline in the polls, Likud soared in the polls last October 2025 following the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, which secured the return of the final 20 living Israeli hostages.