Israel fears Iran will use 60-day negotiations to rehabilitate nuclear and ballistic missile programs

Israeli intelligence agencies believe the Islamic Republic of Iran does not intend to reach a final agreement with the United States. 

The Iranian regime intends use the time of the negotiations and the economic boost from the lifting of sanctions and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for its own benefit, Israeli intelligence assesses. 

The current Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) does not appear to settle any of the outstanding issues between the United States and Iran, but it starts a 60-day timeframe for conducting negotiations over such issues. 

Israel believes that the Islamic Republic, which it assesses is currently being directed by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials, intends to use assets released during this period, along with increased oil revenues expected after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, to rebuild its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, according to reports in Hebrew media.

“We estimate that Iran will stretch the time, and that the 60 days of negotiations will become much longer,” a defense official was quoted by Channel 12 News as saying. 

“No other thing should be expected from a vengeful regime,” the senior official claimed. “It would be very surprising if Iran does not invest all its efforts and tricks to shorten the range of its breakthrough to the nuclear weapon - under the auspices of the talks.” 

According to Israeli correspondent Dror Balazada, there continue to be fissures within the Iranian regime, with senior IRGC leaders determining the red lines in the negotiations. 

IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, who was targeted in an Israeli strike during the war, and apparently survived, is the final authority in such determinations, Balazada said.

He claims that Iranian sources have told him that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf were not negotiating independently, but had to clear all decisions with Vahidi. 

Israeli leaders do not believe that the IRGC regime intends to honor the agreements made, and that the terms of the MoU are too favorable to Iran. 

Israeli officials are concerned over the failure of the U.S. government to release the terms of the MoU publicly, fearing that the actual terms may not incorporate Israel’s security interests, such as Iran’s ballistic missile program, its support for proxies, and it’s freedom of operation in Lebanon. 

“There is a problem of trust,” an Israeli official told Channel 12 News. “The Americans are afraid that we will be briefed and leak the memorandum, and that because of Israel something will go wrong on the way to signing. This perhaps shows in itself how far apart Israel and the U.S. are on the whole Iranian issue these days.” 

The Israeli government requested to see the terms of the MoU, but was rebuffed by the administration of President Donald Trump, CNN reported, citing an Israeli source. 

Meanwhile, despite President Trump claiming that vessels had already begun traversing the Strait of Hormuz and promising a full opening of the waterway with the signing of the memorandum on Friday, Iran has fired multiple drones at ships passing through the strait, NBC News reports. 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched drones at vessels in the strait ever since the memorandum was digitally signed, a U.S. official told NBC News.

According to the official, the U.S. military has shot down the drones before they could threaten military or commercial vessels. 

The U.S. military continues assisting ships departing the strait, the official stated.