The disturbing numbers behind America's growing shift away from Israel

Polls showing overall disapproval of Israel are nothing new, but the latest AP-NORC survey is different. It paints an even more alarming picture of where Americans now stand on Israel.  

Perhaps the most striking finding is this: 31% of Americans now believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Only 20% reject that accusation, while an astonishing 49% say they don't know enough to have an opinion. That means only one in five Americans is willing to definitively say Israel has not committed genocide.

Think about that. Just a few years ago, accusations of genocide against Israel were largely confined to activist circles. Today, the charge has entered mainstream American opinion.

Even among Jewish Americans, opinion has become fractured. The survey finds 30% of Jewish respondents believe Israel has committed genocide, compared to 49% who reject the charge and 21% who remain unsure. That’s an extraordinary shift in the conversation.

The poll also shows Americans increasingly believe the United States favors Israel too much. Today, 40% of Americans say America is too supportive of Israel, while only 18% believe the U.S. is not supportive enough. Another 37% say current support is about right. 

Compare that with just a few years ago. In August 2023 – before Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre – only 27% thought America was too supportive of Israel. Today it’s 40%. That’s a 13-point increase in less than three years.  

At the same time, sympathy toward the Palestinians has grown. Nearly four in ten Americans (39%) now say the United States is not supportive enough of Palestinians, while only 18% believe America is too supportive of them.

That represents another significant shift from 2023, when only 30% believed America wasn’t supportive enough of Palestinians.

Here’s the reality and it’s not good news for Israel: public opinion isn’t simply becoming more balanced. It is moving.

Another troubling statistic involves Israel’s military campaign itself. Only 22% of Americans say Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza are justified. Meanwhile, 35% say they are not justified, and an enormous 43% say they don’t know enough to say. 

Contrast that with Israel’s initial response immediately after Oct. 7. There, 43% said Israel’s immediate military response was justified, while only 16% disagreed.  

Even support for a Palestinian state has nudged upward. Today, 24% favor establishing an independent Palestinian state including the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem. Only 16% oppose such a state, while a majority – 58% – remain somewhere in the middle, neither supporting nor opposing the idea.  

Another revealing finding involves what Americans consider important. Only 35% describe Israel as an extremely or very important issue personally. Meanwhile, 38% say it is only somewhat important, and 26% say it is not very important or not important at all.  

That means Israel simply isn’t a defining issue for most Americans. For Israel’s supporters, that’s perhaps the most dangerous statistic of all.

My biggest takeaway, however, lies inside Christianity. For decades, one of Israel’s greatest political assets in America hasn’t been a president or a political party. It has been evangelical Christians.

Historically, evangelical Christians have been Israel’s strongest and most reliable supporters. That support has been rooted less in politics than in biblical conviction – beliefs about God’s covenant with Israel, biblical prophecy, and the Jewish roots of Christianity.

While support for Israel has steadily eroded among Democrats, younger Americans, and religiously unaffiliated voters, evangelical Christians largely held the line.

However, new polling suggests the broader cultural tide is becoming so powerful that even the evangelical movement may not be immune much longer. Younger evangelicals are growing up in an entirely different information environment.

They consume news through TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, podcasts, and influencers far more than through churches, Christian television, or traditional ministries. Their worldview is increasingly shaped by images of humanitarian suffering rather than decades of teaching about Israel’s biblical significance or security challenges.

This poll doesn’t specifically break out younger evangelicals, but it documents a broader cultural movement that inevitably places pressure on every institution – including churches.

That’s why this moment feels different.

Israel has survived military invasions, terrorist campaigns, and diplomatic crises before but the larger battle today may not be fought primarily in Jerusalem. It may be fought inside American churches. That should concern every single Evangelical Christian in America.