Report predicts continued demographic shift, almost one quarter of Israelis will be ultra-Orthodox by 2050

Close to one in four (24.4%) Israelis are projected to be ultra-Orthodox Jews by 2050, according to a new report published by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI). The report notes that the ultra-Orthodox currently make up 14% of Israel’s total population, numbering some 1.45 million people.

They already account for 23.5% of Israelis eligible for military service, a figure projected to rise to 40% by 2050. The report assessed that this rapid demographic shift would have a significant impact on the country’s economy, society and defense.

“The rapid growth of the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) population is expected to have a dramatic impact on Israel’s economy and society, due to the group’s distinctive patterns of education and employment,” the authors of the report, Dr. Gilad Malach, Dr. Itamar Yakir, and Roe Kenneth Portal, stated.

The majority of ultra-Orthodox men currently do not serve in the Israeli military, and many within the community are not fully integrated into the economy or wider society. The report warns that Israel’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could fall by as much as 10% if the ultra-Orthodox community is not better integrated economically.

“The loss of potential in terms of GDP per capita resulting from the non-integration of Haredim could reach more than 10%, equivalent to approximately NIS 160 billion ($52 billion) in 2023 GDP terms,” Malach, Yakir and Kenneth warned.

However, the problem begins already in school. The matriculation eligibility rate for Israel’s overall population currently stands at 71%, compared with just 16% in ultra-Orthodox schools. The vast gap stems from the fact that core subjects such as math, English and science are not taught in many of these institutions. The report warns that if this educational gap is not addressed, the country’s overall matriculation rate could fall to 61.5% by 2050. By contrast, it could rise to 83.6% if ultra-Orthodox students reach the same educational standard as the rest of the population.

Some 47.1% of Israelis aged 35 to 44 currently hold a bachelor’s degree. While 38% of ultra-Orthodox women also hold such a degree, only 13% of ultra-Orthodox men do.

The report concludes by calling for the establishment of a new social contract between the State of Israel and the ultra-Orthodox community. 

“The findings point to an urgent need for a new, equitable ‘social contract’ between the state and ultra-Orthodox society, which would include far-reaching changes in the education system, military enlistment, and the subsidization of the Haredi population,” the authors wrote.

“Decreasing the economic incentives for non-integration into Israeli society, as well as conditioning state support on the study of core curriculum subjects, military service, and the full realization of earning capacity, are necessary conditions for achieving the required changes,” they added.

Following the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack, the Israeli military said it needs more combat soldiers to meet the country’s complex, multifront security challenges. The IDF has specifically called on more ultra-Orthodox men to enlist.

In December 2025, IDF Chief Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir hailed the Hashmonaim Brigade’s ultra-Orthodox soldiers as modern Maccabees during a Hanukkah ceremony. 

“The brigade’s operational activity over the past year proves that it is possible to integrate combat service while maintaining an ultra-Orthodox way of life. The IDF is the army of the people, and it has a duty to welcome all communities of society. Many missions lie ahead. We are working to expand the ranks of the IDF and to further recruit ultra-Orthodox individuals in order to ensure our readiness for future challenges - we cannot exist without a strong, alert, and capable military,” Zamir stated.