Despite world-leading fertility, Israel’s demographic forecast shifts as ultra-Orthodox birthrates decline

Israel has the highest fertility rate in the developed world, with an overall average of about three children per family – nearly double the OECD average.

Within Israel, the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community has traditionally recorded the highest birth rates – yet a new Israeli report shows that this group is now experiencing its lowest fertility levels in nearly 40 years.

The report finds that average Haredi fertility has fallen from about 7.3 children per family two decades ago to 6.2 today.

The decline is attributed to housing pressures and rising living costs, increased awareness of women’s well-being, and a growing share of Haredi women with academic education. As a result, long-term demographic projections have been revised downward.

As a result, the report revises long-term demographic forecasts, estimating that the ultra-Orthodox population will make up 20%–22% of Israel’s population by 2065, rather than the commonly cited one-third.

The shift is driven by three main factors: a decade-long cumulative decline in birth rates, non-negligible exit rates estimated at 13%–14%, and a downward correction of the current Haredi population size, now estimated at about 1.3 million (roughly 13% of Israel’s population).