First day back at school reveals dramatic demographic shift in Israel

It’s back to school time in Israel, but this year marks the first time the number of children enrolling in religious schools have outstripped those signing up for secular schooling. What is even more remarkable is that the statistics are not marginal: the religious children have outnumbered their secular counterparts by 6,000, according to data revealed to the Times of Israel.

While Israel is a Jewish state, following the Jewish calendar and holidays, there is freedom of religion. The majority of the population (over 70% according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics) are Jewish, while the rest are Muslim, Christian, Druze, Bahai, and other minority groups. Each has their own schools to teach their children according to their traditions, and in their own language, although parents are free to enroll their children according to their own choices. Even among Jewish schools there are both religious and secular institutions from which to choose. It has been a surprise to many to see the climbing numbers that signed up for a religious Jewish education for their children.

Some 180,000 children started school on Monday this week, according to the Ministry of Education, 66,185 of whom enrolled in regular public schools (mamlachti) while 29,470 will attend national religious public schools (mamlachti–dati) and 42,751 ultra-Orthodox schools: a total of 72,221. Another 11,418 first-graders will start in Bedouin schools, 2,702 Druze schools, and 26,975 Arab schools, along with 63 registered at Circassian schools.

Approximately half of Israel’s Jews identify as religious, while about half are secular, according to the Jewish Virtual Library based on a collection of surveys, but the numbers seem to be increasing. In previous decades, the religious communities represented a minority of Israel’s Jews.

Responding to recent research conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling company, Anna Kislanski, executive director of the Reform movement in Israel, suggested that the trend towards religious affiliation could be attributed to Oct. 7 and the events that followed. 

"During periods of national crisis and collective trauma, people are seeking meaning, a sense of belonging and want to connect to their values," she said.

Birth rates are also playing a significant role in the demographic shift. In previous years, Israel’s demographic breakdown has been overwhelmingly secular, with Orthodox Jews forming a minority but now the two groups have become roughly equal in number. 

Not only has there been an increase in the number of children starting in religious schools, but the number in secular schools has declined for the second year running to the tune of 5,000 fewer compared to September 2023. Back in 2000 over 60% of students were enrolled in secular schools, with 20% in national religious and 20% in Haredi schools. 

“We are witnessing a change in the country’s structure,” acknowledged Sergio DellaPergola, professor emeritus and former chairman of the Hebrew University’s Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry. While these shifts are unprecedented in Israel’s history, However, DellaPergola urged caution in interpreting the data, saying they could be influenced by a number of different factors. Still, the change is indisputable.

“The shift within the Jewish sector has been dramatic,” DellaPergola remarked, elaborating, “Today, secular students account for 48%, national religious for 21%, and Haredi for 31%,” he said. 

The total number of children entering first grade has steadily increased over Israel’s history, but dropped slightly in recent years. However, the decline seems to have stopped with this year’s intake rising again, up from 178,526 in 2024 to 179,564 in 2025 according to the Ministry of Education data.

Birthrates play a significant role in the fluctuating figures, as secular Israelis have fewer children than their religious and Haredi counterparts who often have up to six children or more. However, even secular Israelis reach the necessary birthrate for maintaining a steady population of more than two children per family – something many Western nations are struggling to achieve. “More children are born in Tel Aviv, a largely secular city, than in any European country,” DellaPergola said. Numbers in the other population groups have remained more or less steady.

While some religious schools follow the full curriculum of core subjects required by Israel’s Education Ministry, many others do not, raising concerns about the implications of the demographic trend indicated by the first grade intake. With some schools only teaching some of the core subjects, if any, students may leave unprepared to join the workforce, and successfully integrate into Israeli society. Together with the prioritization of Torah study, just 54% of Haredi men are in paid employment as a result.  

“On the one hand, the state needs to provide resources [to the Haredi community] in light of their children’s right to receive an education; on the other, if in exchange for these resources we see a refusal to work and to serve in the army, we have a big problem,” said DellaPergola.

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