Israeli population growth falls below 1% for first time since founding in 1948

Israel's annual population growth dropped to 0.9% in 2025, according to new research published on Wednesday by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies. This marks the first time since Israel’s founding in 1948 that annual population growth has dropped below 1%. Since 1950, the rate has stood at no less than 1.5%, rising significantly during periods of large-scale immigration.

The drop in annual population growth was attributed to various factors, including fewer immigrants to Israel and a net increase in Israelis leaving the country in 2025 amid the protracted war in Gaza. Data from the nation's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) showed that 82,800 Israelis left the country this year, while only 24,200 returned from abroad.

“Israel’s peak period of natural population increase is behind us,” explained Professor Alex Weinreb, the editor of the Taub Center study. He predicted that this trend would continue in the future, adding, “Natural growth will continue to decline.”

Israel currently has the highest fertility rates among the advanced OECD countries. Although the number of annual births in Israel has remained fairly stable, at around 180,000, during the past decade overall fertility rates have reportedly fallen.

For instance, in recent years, fertility rates among Christian, Muslim, and Druze women in Israel have declined by about 30%. The researchers now see signs that fertility rates are also beginning to fall among Jewish women in Israel.

The Taub Center study predicts that the fertility rate among secular and traditional Jewish women will fall from the current range of 1.9 to 2.2 children to approximately 1.7 children per family, which is below the 2.0 replacement level. Fertility rates are also expected to drop among Israel’s religious Jewish population.

The research findings indicate that fertility among modern religious Jewish women is likely to decline from 3.74 to approximately 2.3 children per woman. Fertility rates among ultra-Orthodox Jewish women are also expected to fall, from the current average of 6.48 children to about 4.3 per woman. The study further noted that not all children born into ultra-Orthodox families remain religious as adults; past data show that roughly 15% leave the community later in life.

The rising number of deaths is another factor behind Israel’s declining population growth. This development follows the pattern of other advanced countries, where aging populations are accompanied by a proportionally shrinking younger demographic.

Immigration to Israel (aliyah) has traditionally had a significant impact on the country’s population growth. On Monday, the Ministry of Immigration and Absorption announced that 21,900 immigrants relocated to the Jewish state in 2025, a decline of roughly one-third compared with the previous year. The drop in immigration was attributed to a 50% decrease in new immigrants from Russia.

By contrast, Israel welcomed some 70,000 immigrants in 2022, largely due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and this year's decline in immigration from Russia is likely linked to the Gaza War. Some one million people have immigrated from Russia and other former Soviet Republics to Israel since the early 1990s.

Israeli authorities are now preparing for a potential large-scale Jewish immigration to Israel due to the increase in worldwide global antisemitism since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023.

Despite this year's decline, Israel’s annual population growth is still considered high compared to most advanced societies, which have either stagnating natural population growth (excluding immigration) or even shrinking populations, such as in Japan, Italy and Spain.