Israel watching regional military shifts with growing concern

Israel is closely monitoring a series of regional military and geopolitical developments this week that analysts say could reshape the balance of power in the Middle East, particularly as Turkey expands its influence and the United States signals growing fatigue with military involvement in the region.

The long-standing goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to establish his country as the leading Islamist political, cultural and military power in the Middle East as a stepping stone toward resurrecting the Ottoman Empire has been well documented.

This week, some progress appeared to be made toward that goal when the EFES-2026 Combined Joint Live-Fire Field Exercise took place along the Aegean coast near İzmir, involving large land, naval and air forces from the Turkish military alongside contingents from 50 other countries, including Syria and Libya.

The live-fire component of the drills took place in the İzmir Gulf and Doğanbey training ranges, with dozens of ships, tanks, infantry battalions and aircraft maneuvering, firing and communicating in close proximity.

The Libyan contingent included 331 fighters from the country’s eastern forces and 171 fighters from the western region, marching together under a single Libyan flag despite their lingering rivalry after years of civil war.

Turkey has spent several years attempting to form a joint force from units on both sides while providing training and logistical support.

For Israeli analysts, however, the Syrian participation may have been the most significant development.

Forces from the Al-Jolani regime in Syria were among the smallest delegations, with only 50 soldiers. But the contingent carries political and diplomatic weight far beyond its modest size, marking the first time forces from the newly formed “Syrian National Army” have operated outside Syrian territory.

The fact that they are doing so under Turkish auspices rather than American leadership is being viewed as a signal about both the intentions and capabilities of the al-Jolani regime.

Israel is watching these developments closely. Al-Jolan's regime is viewed in Jerusalem as a “not unfriendly” regional power and a potential ally against Hezbollah and the Iranian regime, while Turkey under Erdoğan is increasingly seen as a deeply hostile opponent of Israel with openly stated ambitions of “liberating Jerusalem.”

Ankara’s growing influence not only in the Middle East but also in Europe and Africa is viewed in Israel as an increasingly worrying development.

Students of Biblical prophecy have also noted the prominent mention of ancient regions corresponding to modern-day Turkey, Persia (modern-day Iran) and Libya in the coalition of nations described in the prophecies of Ezekiel chapters 38-39 that come against Israel.

Israeli analysts also expressed concern this week over a report released by the Congressional Research Service, a branch of the Library of Congress in Washington, D.C., detailing some of the costs and losses associated with Operation Epic Fury.

The report stated that 42 US aircraft were lost or damaged during the campaign. Most were MQ-9 Reaper unmanned drones, 24 of which were shot down during eight weeks of active combat.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach told the House Armed Services Committee on May 20 that the MQ-9 Reaper had inflicted much of the damage on Iran’s military capacity during the war, saying, “No other platform is even close to the MQ-9.”

The report also included a preliminary estimate that the US military will request roughly $29 billion from Congress to pay for the war, including replacing and repairing lost equipment, replenishing expended ammunition, fuel costs and general deployment expenses.

Some Pentagon officials have warned that the figure is likely to grow. At the same time, amid increasing economic hardship at home, concerns are rising that American public support for large-scale military deployments in the Middle East is fading.

”The US doesn’t want to be in the Middle East anymore while Iran and Turkey both want to be the new sheriff in town,” said a U.S. CENTCOM intelligence analyst who spoke to ALL ISRAEL NEWS on condition of anonymity.

“They might be willing to share it, or they might compete with each other while Egypt, Saudi and the rest make a deal with one or the other. Israel might be all alone soon. You better figure something out real fast!”