US-backed proposal envisions Hamas disarming in stages

An American-backed proposal to disarm Hamas in stages could determine whether the war-torn Gaza Strip moves toward reconstruction or renewed conflict, a senior Board of Peace official said Sunday. The plan would link Israeli troop withdrawal to verified disarmament under external oversight. Hamas, weakened since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, is expected to respond this month.

“Soon we will know whether there will be agreed disarmament or whether things are headed in a bad direction,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “These are the final stages of the deliberations."

The Saudi news site Asharq al-Awsat reported in February that the Trump administration was working on a plan to gradually disarm Hamas and even potentially integrate some Hamas operatives into Gaza’s new emerging police force that is expected to be tasked to maintain law and order in the enclave. However, Israel has signaled that it will not accept Hamas terrorists who took part in the lethal Oct. 7, 2023, massacre against Israeli civilians. 

Mediating officials revealed last month that the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal focuses on Hamas handing over its heavy weapons within 90 days while keeping some of its lighter arms. 

“There is agreement from all sides on the process, and they are waiting for Hamas to announce this month whether it agrees to disarm,” the senior official revealed. “They have surprised positively in the past, for example, with the release of the hostages. On disarmament, we will go from heavy to light: starting with production labs and rocket workshops, then they will have to hand over the locations of tunnels, and finally the small arms.”

The Board of Peace High Representative for Gaza Nickolay Mladenov has welcomed the diplomatic framework, arguing that it “can unlock reconstruction, breathe life into communities, and bring us closer to unity and a negotiated resolution of the Palestinian question. It is now on the table.”

The unnamed official argued that Hamas faces a life-or-death decision concerning disarmament. 

“To die or accept amnesty. The logic is clear. Hamas members will be able to remain in Gaza, but not be part of the security services. They will have to give real reconstruction a chance.”

However, given Hamas’ Jihadist ideology to destroy Israel and murder Jews, Israeli officials doubt that Hamas will willingly give up its arms without a fight. The American-brokered ceasefire in October stipulates that Hamas must disarm its forces. However, Hamas leaders have on multiple occasions rejected the idea of disarmament and stressed that it will, at a minimum, retain some arms for “self-defense.” 

Senior Hamas official Khaled Mashal rejected in February the calls for disarming the terrorist group. He portrayed Gazans as “victims” who claimed that Hamas has the right to continue resisting the “occupation," and failed to address the fact that Israel unilaterally left Gaza in 2005, and not a single Israeli soldier was inside Gaza prior to the Hamas Oct. 7 attack two and a half years ago.

Some Israeli officials consequently believe that Hamas is using the diplomatic process to buy time and strengthen its control on Gaza while Israel is conducting military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran and against Tehran’s main terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

Israeli intelligence has assessed that Hamas is in practice working towards recruiting new operatives and rebuilding some of the rocket-production capacity that would enable it to threaten the Jewish state in the future.