Iran reportedly rebuilding and preparing air defenses for possible Israeli or US strikes if nuclear talks fail

Iran is seeking to reinforce its air defense systems ahead of possible Israeli or U.S. strikes if the nuclear talks break down, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. 

Citing western intelligence assessments and recent defense analysis of satellite imagery, the Times reports that Iran has apparently repositioned remaining surface-to-air missile launchers closer to strategic nuclear sites, such as Fordow and Natanz. 

The Financial Times cited a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) claiming Iran still has around 410 surface-to-air missile (SAM) defense systems, with most of those being the Chinese-made FM-80 (Feimeng 80), a short-range SAM. IISS estimates that Iran has only around 26 S-200 and S-300 SAM launchers remaining, and their condition is unknown. 

In October, Israel struck and destroyed several Iranian S-300 sites at strategic locations throughout Iran, in response to the ballistic missile attack the Islamic Republic carried out earlier that same month. The country had hit several such SAM batteries during its strikes in April 2024, as well. 

Following the the strikes, Israeli defense officials said that Iran’s nuclear sites were exposed. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “The Air Force attacked throughout Iran. We severely damaged Iran's defense capability and its ability to produce missiles aimed at us.” 

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25. 🧵(1/7) pic.twitter.com/hhhh9srJ3N

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 28, 2024

However, the Financial Times report said that open source imagery showed several of the SAM sites in Iran may have been empty before those strikes. 

Some of Iran’s air defense systems were displayed at a recent parade in Tehran for “Army Day”, while a S-300 system was seen operating using an Iranian-made radar system, in place of the Russian-made original, during military exercises in February. 

Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, said the display was probably meant to counter Israel’s claims to have destroyed most of the Islamic Republic’s air defenses in October. 

“Iran definitely wants to negate the narrative that its advanced air defenses are destroyed,” she said.

Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, also bragged about his nation’s preparedness for an attack. 

“We are witnessing a remarkable improvement in the capability and readiness of the country’s air defense,” Bagheri said last month. “The enemies of the Iranian nation must understand that any violation of our country’s airspace will inflict significant damage upon them.” 

While Washington continues to engage in diplomatic talks with Iran over the country’s nuclear program, President Donald Trump has threatened to carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if no agreement is reached, and he reiterated his opposition to enrichment in a post to his Truth social media platform on Monday. 

Last week, a senior official warned of severe consequences if Tehran rejected the deal. “If they don’t accept these terms, it’s not going to be a good day for the Iranians,” the unnamed official stated. 

Meanwhile, public broadcaster Kan News, reported last week that Israel has significantly improved its readiness to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities through a series of drills and exercises meant to prepare for both the military strike and any Iranian retaliation. 

The U.S. has several B-2 and B-52 bombers deployed to the Diego Garcia air base in the Indian Ocean since April, widely believed to be in preparation for military strikes if the nuclear talks fail. 

Israel is widely believed to be preparing its own strikes, with or without U.S. involvement if it believes the talks will produce a result deemed dangerous to the country by its leaders.