Democrats' Israel problem could cost them the US Senate in 2026

The U.S. Democratic Party is about to face a political reality that could complicate its path to reclaiming the Senate in 2026: some candidates' rhetoric on Israel is now drawing serious accusations of antisemitism, even from within their own party. 

In two key Senate battlegrounds, Maine and Michigan, progressive candidates are not only surviving controversy – they’re actually gaining traction. It raises a deeper question: Is the Democratic base shifting in a way that could ultimately hurt the party in general elections? 

Let’s start in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed has emerged as a top-tier contender in the Democratic Senate Primary Race. He’s primarily known as a progressive with a campaign emphasis on public health, but El-Sayed is now at the center of a political firestorm over his rhetoric on Israel and some specific alliances on the campaign trail. 

El-Sayed recently sparked outrage after equating the Israeli government with Hamas. That alone would have been controversial enough to ignite backlash. But the controversy didn’t stop there. He then decided to campaign with controversial political online streamer Hasan Piker – who has made inflammatory comments about Israel and even justified extremist rhetoric. That has only intensified the scrutiny. 

However, the numbers suggest this strategy isn’t hurting him with Democratic voters. A new Emerson College poll shows El-Sayed tied for the lead in the primary at 24%, alongside State Senator Mallory McMorrow, while Rep. Haley Stevens, a more traditional pro-Israel Democrat, trails at just 13%. A striking 36% of voters remain undecided, meaning the race is still fluid – but El-Sayed’s position near the top is undeniable and concerning for supporters of Israel. 

Meanwhile, tensions inside the party are spilling into public view. At a recent Michigan Democratic convention, pro-Israel voices were reportedly heckled by left-wing activists, underscoring just how heated – and divided – the party has become on this issue. 

Now let’s shift to Maine, where first-time Senate candidate Graham Platner is facing even more explosive allegations. Platner has come under fire for a reported Nazi tattoo and past online activity in which he allegedly praised Hamas tactics, including videos depicting violence against Israeli soldiers. 

All of this, under normal political circumstances, would be disqualifying , but not in today’s Democratic primaries. Those events haven’t ended his campaign at all. In fact, Platner has a sizable double-digit lead in the polls against Maine’s two-time governor. Shocking. Or maybe not actually.  

Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, one of the most outspoken pro-Israel Democrats in Washington, is sounding the alarm – and he’s not mincing words. 

“I mean, the guy that’s going to win the primary in Maine has a Nazi tattoo on his chest and now that’s no problem for a lot of voters,” Fetterman said in a recent interview on CNN. “I don’t know why. That’s crazy.” 

Fetterman didn’t stop there. “It was just released that he was praising and celebrating a video online where Hamas was beating and torturing Israeli soldiers to death,” he added, referring to Platner. “We have a serious problem with my party.” 

He also pointed directly at Michigan. “The guy in Michigan, he’s leading now in that race, as my party becomes more and more hostile to Israel,” Fetterman said.  

His concerns go beyond just two candidates. He notices that the broader shift within Democratic politics –particularly among younger, progressive voters – is making support for Israel politically problematic in some circles. 

“Israel is becoming more and more toxic for a Democrat to support,” he said, pointing to polling that suggests a growing share of Democrats view Israel negatively. 

A new survey from Pew Research shows 80% of Democratic voters hold an unfavorable view of Israel. In 2022, that unfavorable view was held by 53% of Democratic voters. That’s nearly a 30-point jump in four years. 

Also, in a recent NBC News Poll, when asked whether their sympathies are more with Israelis or Palestinians, 67% of Democrats went with the Palestinians. Only 17% sided with Israel.   

Clearly, progressive activists have made opposition to Israel a defining issue, and it is now showing up in midterm election primary polling in states like Maine and Michigan. Both states are considered critical if Democrats hope to regain control of the U.S. Senate.

In recent years, calls to cut off U.S. defensive aid to Israel – including funding for the Iron Dome missile defense system – have moved from the fringe toward the mainstream of Democratic discourse. 

For primary voters, especially in deep-blue states, that message resonates and candidates like El-Sayed are building coalitions that reflect this new reality. 

But here’s where the problem comes in for Democrats: what wins a Democratic primary doesn’t always win a general election.  

Those progressive candidates who lean heavily into anti-Israel rhetoric may find themselves vulnerable in statewide races, where independents and moderate voters still play a decisive role. 

In swing states like Michigan, that could be the difference between holding a seat and losing it. And it could also be the ultimate difference in not winning back the Senate. 

Republicans have had similar problems in recent years. This didn’t have to do with Israel, but rather more extreme candidates that simply couldn’t win a General Election. This time around, the GOP hopes it snarls the Democrats.