Rubio rising: How Israel and Evangelicals could power a 2028 US presidential run

It may be 2026, but don’t be fooled: the 2028 U.S. presidential race is already underway. There may be no announced candidates, but the positioning – and the parlor games – have begun. Keep an eye on Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The annual CPAC conference – a gathering of movement conservatives – wrapped up this past weekend, and its 2028 straw poll produced some eye-popping numbers.

When asked a year ago who they’d support for president, now-Vice President JD Vance came in at a whopping 61%. This year, he’s slipped to 53%, still strong, still leading – but clearly softened. Marco Rubio jumped from 3% to 35% in just the last year. That’s more than just incremental growth – that’s a surge with real implications. 

But here’s the part that’s being missed in a lot of the early reaction: These numbers are coming out of the Conservative Political Action Conference – a gathering that, in recent years, has skewed heavily toward the MAGA wing of the Republican Party. 

Imagine this: if Rubio is pulling 35% there, in a room that might typically skew toward the more naturally MAGA-aligned Vance, then you have to ask the obvious question: what do those numbers look like when you expand the electorate? 

When you move beyond CPAC and begin factoring in the broader Republican universe – the traditional conservatives, the Reagan-era institutionalists, the suburban Republicans, the donors, the national security hawks, the churchgoing voters who aren’t necessarily plugged into the MAGA movement but reliably show up in primaries – suddenly the picture changes. And it's likely to be in Rubio’s favor. 

In other words, Rubio’s 35% at CPAC may not be his ceiling. It may actually be his floor in a broader GOP contest. 

While Vance’s support is deeply rooted in the MAGA base – a very powerful base – Rubio’s coalition has the potential to be wider because he plays a bit stronger in what you might call the “traditional Republican Lane.” 

Then there's the Evangelical factor. For years, long before this straw poll, Evangelicals have had a natural affinity for Rubio. His story, his tone, and especially his Christian faith and the defense of it have given him credibility with the all-important voting bloc. 

I saw this up close back in 2015 when I sat down with Rubio during his first presidential run. He was talking about policy, yes – but always through a lens of purpose. For Rubio, during our many interviews, it was always about faith and family.  

“The family is the original cell of society,” Rubio told me a decade ago, when he was running for president himself. “It is the first and most important government. It is the first church.” 

Rubio’s faith journey only reinforces that connection. Raised Roman Catholic, he and his wife spent years in a Baptist church before he ultimately returned to Catholicism with a renewed understanding of his faith. “In an ironic way, the more I learned about the written Word, the more I fell in love with the Roman Catholic teachings,” he told me. 

I remember a scene in Iowa back in 2015 where Rubio got up in front of one hundred or so pastors and laid out the Gospel presentation like I’ve never seen before. It was simply pitch-perfect. If he does indeed run again, expect more talk about his Christian faith and how that moral framework weaves into his public policy. 

Additionally, if Rubio runs, he already has “street cred” with many pastors in the early states of Iowa and South Carolina. They know him and he’s put in the work. Surely, it would be a leg up on JD Vance. 

There’s another important factor in play here that is directly tied to why Evangelicals embrace Rubio. He’s always been a full-throttle supporter of Israel. While JD Vance has by no means been an enemy of Israel, Rubio has foreign policy views that fit more neatly when it comes to defending Israel and embracing the Jewish State as an ally. 

Vance will also talk about the strong partnership with Israel, but questions remain about how he would act as president, given that he instinctively leans toward more populist and non-interventionist views. It’s not that he wouldn’t be there for Israel, but he’s more of an unknown. Rubio is not. 

As far back as 2010, I was covering Rubio, then a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Florida. I was there when he spoke to the Republican Jewish Coalition, and his words in defense of Israel and how the relationship intertwines with America are simply poetic. 

“Since 1948, the United States and Israel have been inextricably linked, religiously, spiritually and culturally. But we are also linked by our shared hope for a common destiny – to be enduring democracies, robust economies and freedom-loving, peace-seeking nations. Israel and the United States share exceptional values.” 

“They are the values that have made America the single greatest society in human history, and they are the values that make Israel a democratic and free market success story in the heart of a volatile Middle East.” 

“This is why, since Israel’s founding, Americans have been committed to not simply protecting Israel’s right to exist, but to protecting its right to thrive. Israel has had no better friend than America, and America has had no better friend than Israel.” 

“Support for Israel by the United States in a time of crisis has been a given for over 60 years. And yet, lately, there is the emerging sense that this long-standing relationship isn’t what it used to be. We are in the midst of an all-out, concerted global effort to delegitimize Israel’s right to exist.” 

Rubio’s DNA on Israel has always been solid and now as Secretary of State, he’s proving it. Furthermore, he's building the kind of résumé that Republican primary voters tend to take seriously when they start thinking about electability.  

Of course, Vance remains a formidable force. His connection to the populist wing of the party is real. His alignment with Donald Trump is clear. And his ability to channel the frustrations and priorities of working-class conservatives continues to give him strength.

But Rubio has bottled something very effective both ideologically and politically: he’s been able to take MAGA America First principles and apply them even as a defense Hawk. He’s made it all look very reasonable. He's splitting the difference and succeeding. 

As always in Republican politics, one more variable seemingly looms over everything: Trump. If he weighs in come 2028, it changes the calculus overnight. Conventional wisdom suggests he’ll endorse his vice president, but with this president, nothing is ever conventional. I actually believe that he’ll end up endorsing Rubio for president. He's more in line with how Trump sees the world, especially foreign policy. 

We’ll see how it plays out, but one thing is for sure: Marco Rubio is on the rise, and if he chooses to run, he’ll have a coalition to punch a ticket for the White House.