Trump positioning to end the US-Israel-Iran conflict
The stunning military advances made by the US and Israel during the last 7 weeks in the prosecution of their 47 year-long war against Iran could soon see Trump presenting the terms of surrender to be signed by Iran for ending their long-running conflict.
The following Instrument of Surrender – not a ceasefire – was signed by the Japanese on 2 September 1945 and could well constitute a template for Iran’s surrender to the US now:
The Instrument of Surrender would contain terms:
· Dealing with the fate of Iran’s Uranium stockpiles
· Ending Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Program
· Permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz
· Permanently ending hostilities against America, Israel and any members of the Arab League as may be demanded by Trump
· Such as are deemed necessary by America
The longer Iran takes to agree to the terms of surrender - or to any amendments of such terms as Trump accepts – the greater will be the pain and financial and economic hardship Iran and Iran’s civilian population will be forced to suffer and the more dangerous it will become to allow Iran’s enriched stock of uranium – enough to make and fire 11 nuclear bombs - to remain in Iran’s possession.
Trump will have to continue to defang and degrade Iran until Iran signs the Instrument of Surrender.
Ceasefires can be breached and see fighting resume again. An Instrument of Surrender signifies the permanent end of hostilities.
A Brief History of many ineffective Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreements since Hamas seized control in Gaza in 2007 can be seen here.
Iran has already broken the current two-week “double-sided” cease fire declared by Trump on 7 April (7 April ceasefire) because Iran was unable to provide the complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran admitted it could not locate where it had sunk any mines in the Strait:
Why Trump is therefore maintaining the 7 April ceasefire is still in force on 18 April is unclear:
“President Donald Trump said he may not extend a tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran if negotiations fail to produce an agreement by Wednesday, raising the prospect of renewed military action.
“Maybe I won’t extend it,” Trump said when asked aboard Air Force One whether he would prolong the ceasefire or resume strikes if talks fall short.
“Maybe I won’t extend it, so you have a blockade, and unfortunately we have to start dropping bombs again,” the president added.”
It is in America’s national interest for Trump to now – within a tight timeline:
· Prepare his Instrument of Surrender
· Deliver the Instrument of Surrender to Iran to execute
· Consider any reply by Iran to amending the terms of surrender and
· Further respond to Iran with the final terms for surrender.
· Iran executes the Surrender
There is a perception that Teheran is toying and time-wasting with Trump - who must not allow this to continue.
It is time Trump acted decisively – not try to make head and tail of confusing messages emanating from Iranian officials such as opening the Strait of Hormuz one day and closing it the next day
The time for playing games seems surely set to end.
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David Singer is a Sydney lawyer and a foundation member of the International Analysts Network.
