Gaza, Syria and Iran on agenda as Netanyahu flies to Florida to meet Trump

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed on Sunday morning (today) for the United States for meetings with President Donald Trump and several administration officials at the Trump estate in Mar-a-Lago in Florida. 

According to the agenda sent by the Prime Minister’s Office to the traveling press pool, Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the early afternoon of Monday, followed by a meeting with President Trump at 3:30 p.m. 

Heading the agenda for the Monday meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump is the transition to the second phase of the Gaza peace plan, which the U.S. is eager to accomplish. The Israeli government has resisted attempts to move to the second phase, citing the failure of Hamas to hand over the remains of deceased hostage Ran Gvili, as well as Hamas’ refusal to disarm or accept the institution of the Gaza Peace Board and the international stabilization force (ISF), which the Trump peace plan calls for. 

According to reports in Hebrew media, there are significant gaps in the positions of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu on several issues, including the Gaza peace process, the Iranian threat, the situation in Syria, and the role of Turkey in both Gaza and Syria. 

President Trump is pushing for a quick shift to the second phase, in order to maintain momentum. Israeli security officials do not believe that Hamas will voluntarily relinquish either its weapons or its authority in the Gaza Strip. 

A report in Maariv says that Netanyahu will offer a compromise, in which reconstruction can start within the Israeli-held areas of Gaza behind the Yellow Line, after the IDF has neutralized terror infrastructure, such as tunnels and underground facilities. This would probably start in Rafah, which has largely been cleared of terror infrastructure, and which already has a small Palestinian presence under the protection of the Popular Forces, started by the late Yasser Abu Shabab. 

The rehabilitation of areas under Israeli control would lead to a situation where the Gaza population would prefer to move to the rehabilitated area under Israeli control, which would diminish Hamas’ ability to use the population as human shields. Such a plan would also increase pressure on Hamas to accept all the terms of the Gaza peace plan. 

Under the Israeli proposal, the IDF would maintain a presence within the Yellow Line as long as Hamas does not disarm. Israeli officials recognize that the ISF would not engage Hamas directly, and therefore, the IDF must address Israeli security concerns directly. 

Reports in Israeli media said that Trump will likely announce the transition to the second phase of the peace plan sometime after his meeting with Netanyahu. 

Netanyahu is also expected to reiterate Israel’s rejection of the participation of Turkey and Pakistan in the ISF, due to the hostile stance of both countries towards Israel, as well as the continued support that Turkey has given to Hamas leaders, including hosting meetings with Hamas leadership. 

Regarding Syria, there are notable gaps between the position of President Trump – who wants to see the country stabilize rapidly – and that of the Israeli government. Trump has strongly backed interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, even canceling many sanctions against Syria and pushing Israel to reach a security arrangement with the new regime.

However, Israeli officials are not convinced that al-Sharaa has full control over the various militias which make up the new Syrian security forces, as demonstrated in the recent attack on U.S. soldiers by a Syrian security forces member. They also do not believe that al-Sharaa has completely abandoned his jihadist past, pointing to his failure to stop attacks on minorities such as the Alawites, Druze and Christians.

The fact that Syrian regime soldiers were seen wearing ISIS patches on their uniforms, and chanting slogans such as “To Jerusalem,” and “We are coming to Gaza,” indicates that Israel sees little reason to trust a security agreement with al-Sharaa’s government. 

Netanyahu is expected to notify Trump that Israel is determined to continue holding the territory it seized after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and will continue to act to stop aggression directed at the Druze in the Syrian Golan Heights region.  

Netanyahu is also expected to discuss the Iranian threat with U.S. officials. Israel has assessed that Iran is rapidly rehabilitating its capabilities, particularly its ballistic missiles and air defense systems. Although there is no clear indication of an Iranian intention to attack in the immediate future, Israeli security officials estimate that Iran is preparing for another round of conflict. On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the Iranian state media that the Islamic Republic is in a "full-scale war with the US, Israel and Europe; they don’t want our country to remain stable.” He also said that any further attack “will be met with a harsher response than the previous one.” 

Also expected to be on the agenda is a discussion of the situation in Lebanon, where the Lebanese army has been slow to move against Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River. Netanyahu will likely insist on a continued IDF presence in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah has been disarmed in that area. 

The fact that the U.S. is expected to ask for concessions that some of Netanyahu’s coalition partners will oppose has led to a belief by some Israeli analysts that Netanyahu could announce a date for elections after returning from his trip to the U.S.

Two coalition ministers, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, have threatened to withdraw from the coalition if Israel agrees to withdraw the IDF from key points in Gaza as part of the move to the second phase of the deal. This would collapse the coalition and force elections. 

At time of publication, there was no announcement of public events for Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday. However, on Wednesday he is scheduled to meet with Evangelical leaders at his hotel. Later that day, he and his wife will participate in an event at the Shul of Bal Harbour in Miami. The event will be attended by members of Congress, Jewish community leaders, Miami community leaders, and students from around Miami.