Over one year after the killing of Sinwar, Hamas set to vote on new political leader; Mashal and al-Hayya leading candidates

Hamas is preparing to elect a new political leader for the first time since the killing of Yahya Sinwar on Oct. 16, 2024, during the Gaza war, Saudi news outlet Al Asharq al-Awsat reported on Saturday evening. 

Sinwar was appointed following the killing of the former Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, during a visit to Tehran, for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Hamas lost a significant number of its political bureau members, particularly those residing in the Gaza Strip, along with military leaders during the Gaza War. 

The elections come amid expectations that Hamas will revert to an external leadership structure, as it largely had in the period before the war. While much of Hamas’ political leadership was based in Gaza, several high-ranking leaders, including Khaled Mashal and Khalil al-Hayya, along with Haniyeh, have been living in Doha, Qatar for the past decade. 

Hamas sources reported to Asharq Al-Awsat that the election process for the head of the political bureau will likely be held this week, or in the first 10 days of January. According to the same sources, there are more than one candidate for the leadership position, with Mashal and al-Hayya being the two frontrunners. 

Sources in Hamas also told Al-Ain News that the elections will be held in three arenas – Gaza, the Palestinian Territories in Judea and Samaria, and abroad. The move is designed to convey internal stability and continuity of government, and to send a message to the outside world that the decision-making mechanisms in the terrorist organization are still operating despite international pressure for the group to disarm and relinquish control over the Gaza Strip as part of the Gaza peace plan. 

Over fears that Israel might target the organization's new leader, attempts to fill the position have been done in secret, though it was effectively filled by Mohammed Darwish, also known as Abu Omar Hassan. According to statements by Hamas, Darwish assumed the "position" of head of the movement's leadership council in an interim role. 

Darwish heads a five-member leadership committee that includes Khalil al-Hayya (Gaza), Zaher Jabarin (West Bank), Khaled Mashal (abroad), and a fourth member whose name was not disclosed for security reasons. Darwish has served as head of Hamas' Shura Council since late 2023. 

Darwish's role as head of the Shura Council, in addition to his interim role as head of the Hamas leadership council, makes him a leading candidate for the head of Hamas' political bureau, along with Mashal and al-Hayya. 

The Shura Council, composed of 50 members representing four “regional” shuras – the West Bank, Gaza Strip, prisoners in Israeli jails, and members living abroad – is responsible for electing Hamas’ political bureau and its leader.

Al-Hayya, the head of Hamas’ political bureau in Gaza, is the only member of Hamas leadership to meet with U.S. special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. According to reports in Arab media, Iran is opposed to the election of Mashal as leader, due to his stance favoring Qatar over Iran as an ally for the terror organization. 

Al-Hayya is seen as a favorite due to his support in Gaza and among the group’s members in the Palestinian territories, as well as his stance in favor of continued military confrontation with Israel. Mashal, the former head of the political bureau, by contrast, is seen as favoring a more pragmatic approach, including support for diplomatic agreements, distancing from Iran’s influence, and closer ties with more moderate Arab states.