Who is running Iran? Questions swirl as Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to appear publicly or in any recent videos

U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies believe that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated at the start of Operation Roaring Lion, is alive, but likely not in control of the country. 

Analysts expected some indication of the younger Khamenei’s condition on Friday, as Iran celebrated the Persian New Year, Nowruz. However, when the day passed with only the release of a written statement allegedly from the new supreme leader, questions about his condition persisted. 

In the past, Ayatollah Khamenei made public speeches on the occasion of Nowruz. While many were not expecting a live speech, the failure to give any proof of Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition has increased speculation that he could be incapacitated and that his appointment as supreme leader may be a front for the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Recent reports in The Wall Street Journal and Axios noted that there have been no new confirmed photos or videos of Mojtaba Khamenei since the strike that killed his father and several family members.

Shortly after the announcement of his appointment as Iran's new Supreme Leader on March 12, a fiery statement of defiance, vowing to avenge Iranian martyrs and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, allegedly from Mojtaba, was read out over national television in Iran. 

With the Nowruz holiday over and only another written message issued in his name, uncertainty about Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition has deepened – particularly since Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released a prerecorded video greeting for the holiday, while Khamenei remained unseen.

A U.S. official told Axios that the younger leader’s failure to appear in a video address was “a big red flag” underscoring continued questions about his status and role.

“We would have expected to see Mojtaba, too, in some form. He didn't take advantage of the opportunity and tradition,” the official added. 

According to Axios, several indicators suggest that he is not actively functioning as Iran’s leader. The outlet reported that Israeli and U.S. intelligence have found that Iranian officials seeking in‑person meetings with him have been rebuffed, and that other IRGC and government leaders have begun changing locations frequently for security reasons.

An anonymous Israeli security official told Hebrew media that no one knows what Mojtaba’s condition is. 

"He is alive, but no one knows in what condition," the security source said. "There is a high probability that he is injured, conscious, but not in a condition that allows him to appear in public. The Revolutionary Guards are the ones running Iran, and they are also the ones issuing statements in Mojtaba’s name. Something very strange is happening there.” 

The Jerusalem Post cited a “source familiar with the details,” who said that the IRGC itself has been issuing instructions, using Khamenei’s name and position for its purposes. 

Both U.S. and Israeli officials believe that up until his death last Tuesday, Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani had been functioning as the de facto decision maker. However, after Larijani's elimination by the IDF, it remains unclear who is making decisions for the government. 

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke about the leadership vacuum in Iran, saying, “Their leaders are all gone. The next set of leaders are all gone. And the next set of leaders are mostly gone. And now, nobody wants to be leader over there anymore. We are having a hard time. We want to talk to them but there is nobody to talk to. You know what, we like it that way.” 

Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told Axios that Mojtaba Khamenei may still be making decisions, but is refusing to publicly reveal his physical condition.

“Under the current exceptional circumstances, one should not expect him to appear in public, and it is possible that his injury does not even allow him to release a recorded video in order not to expose to the public the severity of his condition," Zimmt said. 

The Wall Street Journal cited two anonymous Iranian officials who confirmed that Khamenei is injured, but not incapacitated. They said his failure to make any appearances is for security reasons, not wishing to give any indication of his current location. 

Since the war began on Feb. 28, the United States and Israel have divided targets between them, though even the U.S. has acknowledged that Israel has placed far greater emphasis on the targeted elimination of Iranian leadership.

However, as the WSJ noted, Mojtaba was largely absent from the public eye even before his selection as the new supreme leader. 

Among Persian-language social media accounts, opponents of the regime have begun sharing AI-generated videos of Mojtaba Khamenei as a cardboard cutout figure, mocking his absence from the public eye and his apparent status as a figurehead for the IRGC.