Khamenei plans to flee Iran for Russia in event protests threaten collapse of regime - report

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has a contingency plan in the event that security forces cannot quell the current unrest, The Times reports. That plan would reportedly see Khamenei flee to Moscow with family and around 20 aides. 

The Times cited an anonymous intelligence source for the report, who told the outlet that “The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba.” 

The Times also spoke with former Israeli intelligence analyst Beni Sabti, who served with Israeli intelligence after fleeing Iran following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and who confirmed the report saying that Khamenei has few options outside of Russia, noting, “there is no other place for him.”  

According to an intelligence report seen by The Times, Iranian Supreme-Leader Ali Khamenei plans to flee Tehran with a close circle of up to twenty aides and family, if military and security forces called on to quell the ongoing civil unrest begin deserting, defecting, or failing… pic.twitter.com/qFPVb1d1Fd

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 5, 2026

Khamenei’s plan was reportedly developed after the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, during which Assad fled the country mere hours before Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants overran the capital city of Damascus. The Islamic Republic had been a primary supporter of the Assad regime, using Syria in order to aid its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as developing new militias aimed at an invasion of Israel. 

However, Dr. Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran program at the security think tank INSS, cautioned that "Every protest wave in Iran is accompanied by the same report of an expected escape by Khamenei to Russia," noting that similar reports were published during the 12-Day War last June.

"It's worth noting that, unlike the Shah's elite, which maintained close ties with the West and could find political and economic refuge outside Iran in 1979, the ruling elite of the Islamic Republic truly has no other way but to fight for power. And as for Khamenei himself: for heaven's sake, the guy is 87 years old... The only place he's likely to go to in the coming years is to meet his Creator."

Khamenei has made few public appearances since the June 2025 12-day Israel-Iran War, with analysts assessing that in those few appearances, the supreme leader appeared to be more frail. The Times cited an intelligence report from “a western intelligence agency,” which it had seen, stating that Khamenei was “weaker, both mentally and physically” since the war. 

That assessment called Khamenei a “paranoid” leader, who plans on a long-term basis. 

“On one hand, he is very ideologically motivated, but on the other he is pragmatic in what he sees: he sees tactical compromise for long-term greater cause. He is a long-term thinker,” the assessment read. 

According to a Reuters investigation in 2013, Khamenei has assets totaling around $95 billion, with many of those already located outside of Iran, to enable him to quickly reestablish himself somewhere else. Many senior government officials also have family members and assets in foreign countries, including the Gulf states and even in Western nations, such as the U.S. 

Khamenei was the one who led Iran’s development of its proxy strategy to harass Israel and western nations in the Middle East, while planning for the eventual Islamic takeover of those same nations. Under his rule, several large protests have broken out, as citizens, particularly the younger generation, feel their government is investing in an apocalyptic future, rather than the development of the Iranian economy and infrastructure. 

The report of an escape plan for Khamenei also comes just days after the United States conducted a surprise arrest operation in Venezuela, capturing dictator Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, on charges related to drug trafficking. Protests in Iran entered their 9th day on Monday, and have spread to many cities throughout the country. 

Khamenei only addressed the protests for the first time on Saturday, calling the frustration of the shopkeepers and bazaar workers “understandable.” However, Khamenei also blamed elements of the protests on “the enemy’s mercenaries.” 

“First, the bazaar community and the bazaari, the bazaar merchants, are among the most loyal strata in the country to the Islamic system and the Islamic Revolution,” Khamenei said in his comments on Saturday. “We know the bazaar well, and in the name of the bazaar and the bazaari, one cannot confront the Islamic Republic and the Islamic system.” 

Khamenei acknowledged that the protests had started among the bazaaris, but tried to distinguish their protests from other groups. 

“Yes, these gatherings were mostly by bazaaris, but what they said was correct,” Khamenei said. “When a bazaari looks at the country’s monetary situation, the decline in the value of the national currency, and the instability of the currency and foreign exchange, which makes the business environment unstable, he says, ‘I cannot do business,’ and he is right. The country’s officials accept this, and I know that the honorable president and other senior officials are seeking to remedy this problem.”

Khamenei’s attempt to distinguish between bazaar workers and shop owners on one hand, and the rest of the protesters on the other, stems from the support those groups gave to the Islamic Revolution in 1979, while he directed his ire toward those he labeled “rioters.”

Khamenei today on #IranProtests (day 7): Protesters are "bunch of incited mercenaries of the enemy" chanting "slogans against Islam & Islamic Republic."
"Talking to rioters is useless. The rioter must be put in his place."
Translation: Crush the uprising. pic.twitter.com/C4oNomB11c

— Iran News Wire (@IranNW) January 3, 2026

“What is important is that a group of enemy mercenary agitators stand behind the bazaaris and chant slogans against Islam, against Iran, and against the Islamic Republic. This is important. Protest is justified, but protest is different from rioting,” he stated. “We talk with the protester; the officials must talk with the protester; talking with the rioter is of no use. The rioter must be put in his place.” 

In past protests, after Khamenei has spoken up against the protests, security forces have engaged in brutal crackdowns against those demonstrating. 

On Sunday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to hit Iran “very hard” if the regime starts killing protesters, as has happened in past demonstrations. 

🚨WATCH: Trump on Iran: “If they start killing people as they have in the past, I think they're gonna get hit very hard by the United States." pic.twitter.com/MgWgxwYzG6

— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) January 5, 2026

“If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they're gonna get hit very hard by the United States,” he told a small group of reporters on Air Force One.