How much damage did the US do to Iran's nuclear sites? First post-strike satellite images emerge

After U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images” several analysts have begun to weigh in with their own opinions. 

The first to cast doubt on President Trump’s claims were Iranian government officials and regime-aligned Iranian news sites, who had begun casting doubt on the U.S. operation as soon as it was announced. 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency initially tried to deny or downplay that any significant strikes had happened, running headlines such as, “Tasnim reporter's account of Isfahan after the US attack – People did not hear the sound of an explosion,” or “The Fordow Attack: The Complete Destruction of Nuclear Capabilities or a Solution to Pull Israel Out of the War?” 

Iranian lawmaker Manan Raisi, from the Qoms region where the Fordow site is located, claimed damage at the site was “quite superficial.” 

In an article by the state-affiliated Fars News Agency, Raisi was quoted as saying, “Contrary to the claims of the lying president of the United States, Fordow has not been seriously damaged.” 

However, the U.S. administration has stuck to its description of severe damage, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stating in a press conference on Sunday that “Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.” 

“We devastated the Iranian nuclear program,” Hegseth said, while adding that the operation “did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people.” 

U.S. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke at the same briefing, and was a little more reserved in his description of the results, but he confirmed that the sites had sustained “severe damage.” 

“Final battle damage will take some time, but initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction,” Gen. Caine said. 

Satellite imagery of the sites began to be released on Monday morning, and several analysts began to assess President Trump’s claims. 

Decker Eveleth, a satellite imagery specialist and associate researcher at CNA Corporation, formerly The Center for Naval Analyses, a federally-funded nonprofit research and analysis organization, said that satellite imagery alone is insufficient for determining the extent of the damage. 

He told Channel News Asia that the hall of centrifuges, which was the target of the strike, is "too deeply buried for us to evaluate the level of damage based on satellite imagery.” 

However, others were more enthusiastic in agreeing with Trump’s assessment. 

International relations expert Dr. Rebecca Grant told Fox News that she believes the site of Fordow was likely destroyed, saying, “If the weaponeering did its job, then Fordow has been massively destroyed.” 

David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, told Reuters that "They just punched through with these MOPs [Massive Ordnance Penetrators]. I would expect that the facility is probably toast.” 

Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, urged caution in making quick evaluations, however, he estimated that “very significant damage” had been done to the centrifuges. 

"At this time, no one, including the IAEA is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow," Grossi said in a statement to an emergency meeting of the IAEA's Board of Governors. 

"Given the explosive payload utilized and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred," he added. 

Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to retaliate for the strikes, with Army Major General Amir Hatami saying the U.S. would face a decisive and harsh response to the attacks, according to the Tasnim News Agency. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted to 𝕏 that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people.”