Could Democrats nominate pro-Israel Josh Shapiro in 2028? New poll offers clues

There’s been talk in political circles that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro could be a formidable Democratic presidential candidate in 2028. He has great oratorical skills, an impressive resume, and the ability to communicate an uplifting message with aplomb.

But there may be a problem for Shapiro if he decides to run: He is a pro-Israel Jew at a time when skepticism of Israel is growing within the Democratic Party.

Yet a revealing new Pennsylvania poll suggests Shapiro may have found something increasingly rare within his party: a politically sustainable way to remain publicly pro-Israel while still holding on to Democratic voters.

The bigger question is whether that formula could survive a Democratic presidential primary.

According to a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll highlighted by The Algemeiner, 47% of likely Pennsylvania voters say Shapiro’s position on Israel is “about right.” Just 14 percent believe he is too supportive of Israel, while 19% say he isn’t supportive enough.

Even more interesting: 59% of Pennsylvania Democrats say Shapiro has struck the right balance on Israel. Those are pretty good numbers in a Democratic Party that is undergoing a profound transformation on Israel.

Shapiro has tried to occupy an increasingly complicated political space.

He strongly supports Israel’s existence and the U.S.-Israel alliance while at the same time criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and supporting humanitarian assistance for Palestinians. He has resisted the Democratic left’s calls to abandon Israel while also distancing himself from the Israeli right.

Call it a pseudo middle ground.

His vision for peace involves Israel and a Palestinian state living alongside each other with both acknowledging the other’s right to exist. That sounds pretty much like the position of other Democratic presidents from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

A two-state solution seems a long way off at this point, and with all the venom coming from the Democratic Party against Israel, that middle-of-the-road position may not even fly at this point.

Support for Israel among Democrats has deteriorated dramatically, particularly among younger and progressive voters. Gallup polling this year found Democratic sympathy with Palestinians substantially outweighing sympathy with Israelis, while several possible 2028 candidates have moved toward tougher restrictions on Israel.

Even Shapiro’s encouraging Pennsylvania numbers contain a warning sign: 40% of voters under 30 say he is too supportive of Israel. If he runs for president, there’ll be plenty of work ahead.

Then there is Senator John Fetterman.

If Shapiro represents the careful pro-Israel Democrat, Fetterman represents the unapologetic version.

Since the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre, Fetterman has repeatedly defended Israel even as much of his party moved in the opposite direction.

This summer, he went so far as to say Israel could determine whether he remains a Democrat. “If our party ever becomes … the anti-Israel party, you know, that’s when I would leave,” Fetterman said.

He said Democrats have increasingly moved toward describing Israel as an apartheid or genocidal state while opposing even basic military assistance. “It’s getting more and more incredibly hostile towards Israel,” Fetterman said. “Israel is our important, key ally.”

The Pennsylvania polling suggests voters overall aren’t punishing him for these views. Forty-three percent say Fetterman’s position on Israel is “about right.”

But here is the significant difference between him and Shapiro: 51% of Pennsylvania Democrats believe Fetterman is too supportive of Israel.

What that suggests is that Fetterman may be too confrontational toward his own party to represent the Democratic center of gravity on Israel. Shapiro may not be and could potentially thread the needle.

His potential candidacy would pose a fascinating test. Can Democratic primary voters nominate a Jewish candidate who openly defends Zionism, supports continued American security assistance to Israel and refuses to treat Israel itself as illegitimate? Or has the party moved too far? Seems like a tall task.

Consider the 2024 presidential race. Shapiro was seriously considered for Kamala Harris’ VP role but never got the call.

Shapiro revealed in his 2026 memoir that a Harris aide asked whether he had ever been “an agent of the Israeli government.” “I wondered whether these questions were being posed to just me – the only Jewish guy in the running,” he wrote in his book.

His Jewish faith and relationship with Israel would almost certainly receive extraordinary scrutiny during a presidential campaign.

So while the Pennsylvania poll numbers are encouraging for him, it remains to be seen whether his approach to handling the Israeli issue could be a winning one nationally.

He’ll have his work cut out for him.