Turkey turns away: Could Israel face global isolation?

While Ankara’s announcement last week that it would sever economic ties with Israel and close its airspace to Israeli aircraft may seem relatively inconsequential, it should serve as a red flag. If the war in Gaza drags on and the IDF remains in the enclave, other countries could follow suit – and then Israel would be in real trouble.

Turkey is one of nearly 200 countries with which Israel maintains relations. As long as the friction is limited to Turkey, Israel can manage. The real concern is that tensions are flaring simultaneously with multiple nations – Belgium, for example, has already threatened sanctions.

“If there will be sanctions simultaneously from 20 or 30 countries, it will cause Israel a huge economic problem,” explained Dr. Alon Liel, who spent 30 years in Israel’s foreign service, including as head of mission to Turkey. “It will become a kind of international isolation of Israel. Israel is a global country and we cannot disconnect ourselves from the world – not commercial[ly], not academically, not scientifically.”

In other words, Turkey may only be a small piece of the much larger challenge Israel could soon be facing.

Israel and Turkey have enjoyed diplomatic ties since March 1949, and those ties were never fully severed even during tense times.

Last year, despite a $9 billion trade volume in imports and exports, Turkey unilaterally decided to suspend trade. Yet, as Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of Tel Aviv’s Moshe Dayan Center told ALL ISRAEL NEWS, Turkish ships continued sailing to Israel.

“The goods carried in these shipments were sent to be delivered to the Palestinian Authority. In many of these cases, Palestinians receiving the goods would later hand them over to their Israeli counterparts in exchange for small commissions,” Yanarocak explained. “Now, with the newly adopted sanctions, no Turkish-flagged ship is sailing to Israel anymore. This constitutes a significant blow to bilateral trade, which was supposedly considered completely terminated.”

Turkey also closed its naval zone to Israel, meaning Israeli vessels – including those from the country’s largest and most international shipping companies like ZIM – can no longer pass through. Although it initially sounded like all flights were canceled, the skies are technically only closed to official government flights and weapons shipments, not commercial traffic. Still, before the war, there were 10 to 15 direct flights a day between Israel and Turkey. Now, there are none.

Exports and imports, according to Liel, are still flowing – but only partially and often through third parties. Israeli importers now rely on partners in Turkey to send goods to Greece or Cyprus, from where they are retrieved.

Naturally, this has driven prices up, particularly on raw materials, making life more expensive for everyone.

For now, Turkey has continued to allow energy supplies from Azerbaijan to Israel, routed through its territory, without interruption. But if energy is added to the sanctions, Israel would be forced to scramble for alternative sources. The country’s gas is already costly, and any disruption could trigger shortages and even higher prices if Israel had to dip into its reserves.

While the sanctions are primarily economic, they also carry weighty diplomatic implications. 

“As bridges between the two peoples gradually collapse, instead of open dialogue between the foreign ministries, we see – at least as reported in the press – that the two countries are maintaining communication through a hotline established between their armies to reduce tensions, as well as via their intelligence services. To put it frankly, the situation does not look very promising,” Yanarocak noted.

He stressed that Ankara and Jerusalem have never formally declared hostility, making the current crisis an “important precedent.” According to Yanarocak, “What matters here is that, even though relations may deteriorate, they should not be allowed to collapse entirely. If they were to break off completely, it would serve neither Israel’s nor Turkey’s interests. Such a development would only benefit Iran.”

Turkey and Israel have seen better and worse moments in their relationship. The question is what happens once the war in Gaza ends: will ties resume where they left off on October 6, 2023?

Yanarocak said the outcome “hinges on whether, after Hamas is completely wiped off the map and expelled from Gaza, the territory will be directly occupied by Israel or whether its administration will once again be handed over to the Palestinians. Secondly, as long as Likud remains in power in Israel and the AKP government remains in power in Turkey, I do not expect to see a U-turn in relations.”

Liel told ALL ISRAEL NEWS that the breach of trust and the scars between the two countries run deep and are unlikely to heal so fast, even when Israel withdraws from Gaza.

For now, Israel can weather the current tensions with Turkey. But the situation should not be brushed aside. 

It may well be a warning sign of what lies ahead if the Gaza war drags on – and the question is whether the Israeli government is paying enough attention.