New parties struggle, Likud squabbles over internal list as latest polls project no clear majority

With now less than two months left before the elections, most recent polls continue to project a deadlock, as neither the coalition nor the opposition blocs are large enough to reach a clear majority.

Part of the reason is the crowded field of smaller, centrist parties, all of which demand a broad unity government but none of which have yet to clear the electoral threshold of 3.25%, tying up several mandates worth of votes.

The latest major poll published by Channel 12 on Monday showed that, if elections were held today, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar would be the largest party with 24 seats, leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud with 22 seats.

Bennett’s Together party rose to 15 mandates, the Democrats received 11, Yisrael Beiteinu 10, Jewish Power and United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, and Religious Zionism 5. The Arab Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am parties each received 5 seats.

Meanwhile, Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel’s Zionist Home received 2.7% of the votes, Gilad Erdan’s new party 1.3%, and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White only 0.8%.

Therefore, the opposition would receive 60 seats, falling short of the required 61; Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 50 seats, and the Arab parties, which traditionally don’t join the government, have 10.

Knesset Seat Poll

🔴Yashar: 24 (+1)
🔵Likud: 22 (-1)
🔴Together: 15 (+1)
🔴Democrats: 11 (+1)
🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 10 (+1)
🔵UTJ: 8
🔵Otzma: 8 (+1)
🔵Shas: 7
🟢Hadash-Ta'al: 5
🟢Ra'am: 5
🔵RZP: 5
🔴Zionist Home: 0 (-4)

+/- Aug. 3

via Midgam/Chan12, Aug. 10 pic.twitter.com/GW3gG5JWhV

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) August 10, 2026

In Kan News’ most recent poll from Saturday, Likud led Yashar with 24 to 23 seats. The coalition would receive 53 while the opposition stood at 56, according to this poll. It similarly showed Zionist Home, Erdan and Gantz fall short of the threshold with 3%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively.

Channel 12’s Daphna Liel assessed that “Erdan and his party’s plan is simply to be the most determined, to be the last ones to blink – and hope that everyone else withdraws from the race.”

She also noted that, despite somewhat similar policies demanding universal military service and a broad government, “the voter bases do not necessarily overlap – because Hendel and Tropper barely decline because of this [new party]. It is not at all certain that these are necessarily the same people: it could be that Erdan is taking more votes from the right, while Tropper is taking more from the other bloc.”

Liel’s colleague Yair Sherki added, “The situation in which no one passes essentially forces unity talks among this group, which the current poll gives six seats if they run together. However, despite their political proximity, their relationships are very bad – and it will be difficult to unite all these generals into a single party.”

Meanwhile, all parties continued their efforts to shape their electoral slates ahead of the elections, particularly the Likud, where Netanyahu is trying to push through several reserved candidates against opposition from within the party.

Knesset Seat Poll

🔵Likud: 24 (+1)
🔴Yashar: 23 (+1)
🔴Together: 13
🔴Democrats: 10
🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 10 (+1)
🔵Otzma: 8 (-1)
🔵UTJ: 8
🔵Shas: 8 (+1)
🟢Ra'am: 6
🟢Hadash-Ta'al: 5
🔵RZP: 5 (+1)
🔴Zionist Home: 0 (-4)

+/- Aug. 6

via Kantar/Kan, Aug. 9 pic.twitter.com/mLLV7UK7Uf

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) August 9, 2026

On Monday, he announced that he seeks approval from the Likud Secretariat for guaranteed spots for Defense Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Minister Haim Katz.

Netanyahu also announced he has invited entrepreneur Oren Dobronsky, known from the Israeli version of “Shark Tank," to join the party and offered him a reserved slot. Likud sources told Channel 12 that he was even promised a ministerial position in the next government.

However, Dobronsky quickly drew negative headlines and was forced to apologize after media outlets highlighted social media posts that were strongly critical of U.S. President Donald Trump, even calling him a “morally corrupt piece of shit” less than two months ago.

The announcement of Katz’s reserved slot also drew criticism, after he had launched his campaign with a controversial video showing off IDF strikes and resulting explosions with a song praising “Boom, boom, Israel Katz” playing in the background.

Defence Minister Katz’s new primary campaign ad: “Boom-boom-boom” pic.twitter.com/onNFqzNu4s

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) August 10, 2026

“The defense minister is harming our efforts on the international stage, and he is also harming the IDF,” said Yisrael Beitenu’s Avigdor Liberman in an interview on Radio 103 FM. “I think he needs to be given a ‘boom boom on the head.’”

Earlier this week, former mayor of Beit Shemesh and high-school principal Aliza Bloch, who was wooed by several parties, announced she would join Erdan and Yuli Edelstein’s new, yet-unnamed party.

She reportedly held talks with Gantz’s Blue and White, as well as the Likud, where she was reportedly offered a reserved spot.

She gained popularity for expanding the contested city's state haredi education framework as part of an effort to integrate the ultra-Orthodox community into society through education.

“Equality in sharing the burden does not begin at age 18 and is not built through legislation alone. It begins with education, a sense of belonging, and responsibility from a young age,” she said. “In Beit Shemesh, we proved that it is possible to create frameworks that respect haredi identity while also connecting children to the state, education, employment, and service.”

On the left side of the political spectrum, Yair Golan was strongly criticized for declining to give a reserved spot to Einav Zangauker, mother of former Hamas captive Matan Zangauker.

She accused him of breaking his promise to her, saying she did not explore other opportunities out of trust in his word. Zangauker was one of the most well-known, as well as controversial, leaders of the hostage protest movement. Her son was released from captivity in October 2025.

Knesset Poll w. Hadash-Ta'al-Balad Merger & Segalovitz Joining Ra'am

🔴Yashar: 23 (-1)
🔵Likud: 22
🔴Together: 15
🔴Democrats: 10 (-1)
🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 10
🔵UTJ: 8
🔵Otzma: 8
🔵Shas: 7
🟢Hadash-Ta'al-Balad: 6 (+1)
🟢Ra'am: 6 (+1)
🔵RZP: 5

via Midgam/Chan12, +/- headline poll

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) August 10, 2026

Another move that could potentially shake up the race is the possible joining of Yoav Segalovich with Ra’am.

Segalovich, a former senior police official who left Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, would be the first Jewish politician to run with the Islamist party. The goal would be to present a strong front to combat the rampant crime wave in the Arab society.

Channel 12’s poll projected that, if Segalovich joins Ra’am and all Arab parties agree to run in a joint list, the party would receive 12 mandates, though the opposition bloc would fall to 58.

However, Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas and Segalovich are still negotiating, with Abbas reportedly demanding only a “technical” merger in which Segalovich would not officially join the party, and that Ra’am’s internal constitution would not be changed.

On the other hand, Segalovich wants Ra’am to enshrine a statement affirming Israel as the state of the Jewish people, as well as the freedom to vote according to his conscience on matters of religion and state.