Delta, United return to Israel, but NY airfares expected to stay high until November

The return of Delta Air Lines and United Airlines to the Israel-New York route is expected to boost competition with Israeli carriers El Al and Israir, but Israeli aviation experts say travelers should not expect airfares to fall significantly until at least November.

“Prices will not become competitive again until incoming tourism is back to pre-October 7, 2023, war numbers,” Ziontours Jerusalem travel agency CEO Mark Feldman said in an interview with The Times of Israel.

U.S. airlines have been largely absent from the Israeli market since Hamas’ attack on southern Israel, giving El Al a near-monopoly on the major New York route. In 2025, Israeli carrier Arkia began operating flights to New York, adding limited competition ahead of the return of the major U.S. carriers.

The resumption of U.S. flights comes just ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, beginning next weekend, when many Israelis traditionally travel abroad.

Despite the increased capacity, Eshet Tours CEO Gil Hahn expects fares to remain high in the short term because of continued strong demand from Israeli travelers.

“We expect to see the impact on fares starting in November, following the elections and the end of the peak summer and holiday travel seasons,” Hahn said.

He nevertheless expressed optimism that the combination of lower seasonal demand and increased capacity could eventually bring significantly cheaper fares.

“The combination of the seasonal decline in demand and the significant increase in capacity could create opportunities and fares on routes to the US that we haven’t seen in quite some time,” Hahn said.

Feldman similarly said a meaningful normalization in fares would depend largely on the return of American tourists to Israel.

“Prices will not normalize until primarily the American incoming travel market to Israel resumes,” he said, noting that the market had not recovered for Sukkot and that Christians had not yet begun booking Christmas travel.

“We are starting to get interest, but there is still a lot of trepidation,” Feldman added, apparently referring to concerns about a renewed conflict with Iran and its regional terrorist proxies.

Dozens of foreign airlines, including United and Delta, suspended flights to Israel when the war with Iran began in late February. Some carriers remain reluctant to resume regular service amid continued security concerns. Air Canada has signaled a potential return in mid-January, while American Airlines has postponed any potential return until the end of March.

Still, Israeli aviation and tourism officials are increasingly optimistic about the impact of the returning U.S. carriers.

“The return of US airlines to Ben Gurion Airport is excellent news for Israeli travelers,” Hahn said.

“After a prolonged period in which flight capacity to the US was limited and fares remained high, their return, alongside increased capacity from Israeli carriers, is expected to significantly increase the number of available seats and bring competition back to these routes,” he added.

For now, however, travelers face exceptionally high fares during the September Jewish holidays. Round-trip flights between Israel and New York are averaging $3,000 to $4,000 per person.

Asaf Greenberg, marketing director for the online travel company lastminute.co.il, expects fares to fall substantially in October, to around $1,400 on El Al or Arkia and approximately $1,900 on Delta or United.

“Based on what we see today, the additional nonstop capacity is improving availability, but fares remain high and volatile,” Greenberg said. “While high fares are clearly influencing consumer choices, the latest data does not suggest that demand for New York is disappearing.”

“On the contrary, bookings have strengthened despite the high prices,” he added.

Feldman welcomed the return of Delta and United but criticized the availability of lower-priced seats, particularly on United.

“We very much welcome United and Delta coming back, and we would be a lot more thankful if especially United would make seats in lower fare classes available, which they do not, although we can see on the seat maps that their planes are not full,” he said.

Neta Gafni, chief marketing officer at Ophir Tours, cautioned that continued regional tensions could make the aviation market difficult to predict, with the possibility of further flight cancellations.

“The situation with the war is not predictable, as one day President Donald Trump threatens a response to strike Iran when tensions ramp up and the next there is a retraction, while American aircraft are still parked at the airport,” Gafni said, referring to U.S. military aircraft being parked at Ben Gurion Airport, which has created a bottleneck for civilian airlines.

“In this environment, people are still somewhat afraid to book a flight with foreign or US airlines,” Gafni said.