Things I know and don’t know about a deal with the Islamic Republic

100 days into the term of a new president, prime minister, or government is the accepted measure of time that the grace period and learning curve are considered complete and after which the leader or government may come under more intense scrutiny. Many leaders will tout all their achievements at the end of the 100-day period, showing that they were working all along. 

As for the grace period, long ago that became largely irrelevant and political leaders are judged by what they do, and what they don’t do, from day one. It’s kind of like the ceasefires between which Israel has been existing for the past 100 or more days, where officially there’s supposed to be a “cease” but in reality the “fire “persists. 

Since barrages of missiles were fired at Israel Sunday night and again Monday morning this week, from the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, there are some things that are more clear and some things that are less clear. One thing that is clear is that this is a situation that is unsustainable and cannot be left to go on. 

It seems clear that in a call to Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump insisted that Israel not respond to the Sunday evening barrage on the grounds that, “The Iranian strikes didn’t hurt anybody,” and “If Bibi strikes them back its just gonna keep going like the past 47 years, or the last 3000 years.” 

I don’t know, I wasn’t alive 3000 years ago. But I do know that the Iran attack on Israel was because the Islamists know Trump is faking it about the “deal” that he’s been saying is close for months. You can imagine him in the role of Meg Ryan (Sally) at the deli in “When Harry Met Sally,” his performance earning complements from patrons at the next table, and Islamists around the world alike. “We are very close to a final deal with Iran, It’s going to be a good deal. I don’t want to blow it up because of what is happening now.” Billy Crystal (Harry) and the rest of the world look on in disbelief. 

I know that the Islamic Republic attacked because they successfully linked themselves and a deal with the US to Hezbollah in Lebanon. So when Israel attacked Hezbollah positions near Beirut, the Islamic Republic used it as a pretext to attack Israel, knowing that they would be goading Israel into a no-win situation as Trump truly believes he’s got a deal at hand. Ever the dealmaker, Trump likely saw it as a draw, “Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don’t need another one.” 

I also know that the Islamic Republic attacked because as a possible peace deal between Israel and Lebanon may be inching closer, it’s bad for their proxy Hezbollah, and terrorists will always use terror to influence from the outside. Indeed, it’s a common Islamic terrorist strategy, literally to try to blow up peace through missiles or suicide attacks. 

I know they attacked because they knew by now that Trump thinks he’s so close that he won’t let anyone ruin his “deal.” But he’s been saying that he’s “close” for weeks and weeks. They know that he wants a deal more than they are (ever) prepared to make a deal, so they attacked, calling his bluff. 

They attacked literally because Trump’s words about a deal have been the fuel for the missiles they fired. They want no deal, they just want to play Trump, and will use any pretext to attack or otherwise harm Israel. They attacked because their agenda is clear and they are singularly focused on playing the US and the West as they have for 47 years (but probably not 3000 years) to plot to destroy it all. 

If there had been any doubt as to whether President Trump was bluffing, and his weeks and weeks of chanting about making a deal with the Islamic Republic were part of some mass deception campaign, that doubt has been late to rest. It is clear that his notion of ending the war and the threat to America and the West by signing “the best deal ever” has never been more mistaken than ever. 

Unfortunately, the Islamic Republic saw his hand and played him. They demanded that Lebanon be included, and when Israel responded to a violation of a cease-fire with Hezbollah (nearly 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during the ceasefire), Iran was given freehand to launch bars of ballistic missiles at Israel.

Unlike President Biden, who said “Don’t, don’t” to deter Iran and Hezbollah in 2023, this week, President Trump essentially said “Don’t” to Israel to prevent the appropriate and massive response that should have taken place. This week we know the Islamic Republic knows that Trump is more eager for a deal than actually defeating the Islamic Republic. They know that they can continue to play him before and after a deal if there is one.

I know that there can be no deal with the Islamic Republic and its proxies. I know that in the real estate deals Trump is used to, they end by one party paying for a project and the other selling the land or rights to do the project. It’s a simple transaction. I know that with the Islamic Republic and its proxies, any deal now will mean that we are paying later, and later. Yes, maybe for 3000 years. 

I know that for the past 100 days and more (but probably not 3000 years), anti-Israel agitators have used every deceitful trope anyway to make Israel look like the bad guy,  somehow controlling Trump and US policy. Yet the latest escalation and tying Israel‘s hands has made it clear not only was this never true, but in fact, Trump has tied Israel hands. 

I know that Israel did retaliate, hitting Iranian sites Monday morning, and that this possibly could give Israel face-saving cover to appease Trump more broadly, while respecting the alliance between Israel and the United States are allies. It does not make sense to cross the president unless absolutely necessary. But the Islamic Republic is not only not an ally, but a dangerous enemy seeking the destruction of the United States. I know that as much as Trump may think he’s “close,” to a deal, the Islamic Republic will never do or agree to anything that is not in its long range interest. Even if that is suicidal. I don’t know if Trump realizes that any deal with the Islamists is itself suicidal. 

I know that if there is a deal, the Islamic Republic will play along but, before the ink is dry, they will use their decades of practice (47 years to be precise, but not 3000) to undermine that. 

I know that to the Islamic Republic and their proxies, as well as to US allies in the region who are trying to assess what Trump is doing, it’s clear that he seems desperate to end the war, even without achieving the declared goals set out at the beginning of the war. while insisting that will ensure the Islamic Republic never gets nuclear weapons, not even in 3000 years, there’s no evidence to that. 

Annoyed, maybe even angered that his deal might be sidetracked,  he commented, “I would say an agreement would be signed on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday of this coming week.” But the Iranians see it as crying wolf, as they suit up in their wolves clothes, ready to use his eagerness to make a deal as a time to pounce. Just as they have in closing the Strait of Hormuz, creating a global energy crisis that they are able to turn on even stronger under a deal down the road. 

One hundred days after beginning a war together to eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile capabilities, its support for its terror proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, and create facts on the ground that could lead to the fall of the Islamic regime, with Israel under attack again and the Islamists clearly playing its hand while Trump talks about a deal, I know it’s time to finish the job and win, not talk and talk about a deal.