US intel said to believe Israel prepares independent strike on Iran nuclear sites as talks falter - report

U.S. intelligence officials believe Israel may be preparing an independent strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to a CNN report released on Tuesday. The report cites multiple U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence. 

“The chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months,” one of the sources told CNN. “And the prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.” 

The intelligence report was based on intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements and preparations, such as air drills and munitions movement, which suggest preparations for a strike on Iranian sites. 

The report also claimed that Israel could simply be trying to pressure both Iran and the U.S. with its military moves, as the 60-day deadline to achieve a deal, set by President Trump in March, has already passed. 

President Trump sent a letter to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, setting a 60-day deadline to achieve a deal. At the time, Trump threatened Iran with military action if its leaders rejected talks. 

Later, the U.S. and Iran began indirect negotiations mediated by Oman, which have already included four rounds of talks, with a fifth expected soon. Nearly 40 days have passed since the first round of nuclear talks.

CNN cited a “Western diplomat” who met with Trump earlier this month, who said that the president will only give Iran a few weeks to achieve a deal before pursuing a military option. 

In April, Trump indicated that any U.S. military strike on Iranian facilities would involve Israel as well, although he has shifted position on who would lead the strikes. 

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the Middle East, told CNN that Trump’s decision to pursue negotiations has put Israel “between a rock and a hard place,” as it seeks to avoid both an unfavorable deal or alienating President Trump, who has historically been very supportive of the Jewish state. 

“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” Panikoff told CNN.

He also estimated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not risk rupturing his relationship with President Trump by attacking Iran without U.S. approval. 

However, Netanyahu has previously stated that Israel would take whatever decisions it needs to protect itself. 

In the meantime, U.S. intelligence officials are increasing their observations of Israeli military and political actions. 

At the moment, analysts are divided over the probability of an independent Israeli strike. An Israeli source told CNN that Israel is prepared to act alone if the U.S. negotiates a “bad deal,” which it believes puts the Jewish state at risk. However, a U.S. source told the news agency that Israel would probably strike before such a deal is finalized. 

“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal,’” the sources said. 

The U.S. does not believe that Israel has the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities without American assistance, but intelligence officials believe Israel could attempt to temporarily disrupt Iran’s nuclear capabilities, attempting to provoke the U.S. into firmer action. 

At the same time, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Tuesday countered President Trump’s optimism on a deal, saying that the current talks with the U.S. are unlikely to succeed. 

Speaking at a memorial service for former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last May, Khamenei said that indirect talks with the U.S. also took place under Raisi “but without results.” 

“We do not think it would yield results now either. We do not know what will happen,” he continued. 

Khamenei also rejected the recent statements by President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, who said in an interview with ABC News, “We cannot allow even one percent of an enrichment capability.” 

“Saying things like 'we won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium' is way out of line,” Khamenei stated. “No one is waiting for anyone’s permission. The Islamic Republic has its own policy, its own approach, and it will continue to pursue it.” 

Emirati news site The National on Monday reported that Iran has not yet accepted Oman’s invitation for a fifth round of talks, due to take place in Rome.