Political earthquake? Michigan Democrats poised to deliver major blow to pro-Israel forces
With Michigan Democrats heading to the polls on Tuesday, anti-Israel candidate Abdul El-Sayed has opened up a commanding lead over Congresswoman Haley Stevens in a U.S. Senate primary that has emerged as one of the clearest tests yet of where the Democratic Party is headed on Israel.
A new Emerson College Polling survey shows El-Sayed leading Stevens by 15 points, 54% to 39%, with just 6% of likely Democratic primary voters still undecided. When voters leaning toward a candidate are included, El-Sayed’s advantage grows to 57% to 41%. The poll of 700 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted July 26–27 and carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The generational divide is especially striking. El-Sayed leads by 42 points among voters under 50, while Stevens holds a 14-point advantage among voters over 60. Independents voting in the Democratic primary favor El-Sayed by 27 points, while self-identified Democrats give him a narrower 9-point edge.
The numbers suggest that Tuesday’s primary could be more than simply a contest between a progressive outsider and an establishment congresswoman. It could become a political earthquake over Israel.
El-Sayed has centered his campaign on opposing U.S. military aid to Israel and criticizing the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Stevens, meanwhile, describes herself as a proud Democrat who supports Israel’s continued existence and security, even though she has sharply criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It’s not like she’s a solid conservative Zionist supportive of Israel, but she supports the Jewish state nonetheless.
The contrast in this race could hardly be more pronounced. “For too long, our foreign policy has been handed to us by the likes of the state of Israel and AIPAC, who has made sure that Democrats and Republicans are doing their bidding,” El-Sayed declared during a recent primary debate.
He went even further, calling for an end to American weapons sales to Israel. “We cannot continue to sell weapons to a country that is doing human rights abuses, genocide and apartheid,” he said.
El-Sayed also argued that the United States must “stop running cover for what has become a rogue state that is now trying to annex southern Lebanon.”
That is not simply criticism of Netanyahu or a call for conditions on certain weapons. El-Sayed is advocating a fundamental break with the traditional Democratic position supporting the U.S.-Israel military relationship.
In another interview, he framed the issue as a choice between helping Americans at home and funding Israel abroad. “The question is whether we want a politics where our money is sent over to Israel to fund genocide and apartheid instead of investing in our own kids,” El-Sayed told Fox News.
As any logical person realizes, Israel does not support genocide and says its military operations are aimed at defeating Hamas and other terrorist organizations while attempting to reduce civilian casualties.
AIPAC and its affiliated organizations have spent close to $30 million supporting Stevens, reportedly the largest amount the pro-Israel organization has ever invested in a single race. Outside groups have spent nearly $50 million boosting her candidacy, far exceeding the amount spent by her own campaign.
Abdul El-Sayed harps on AIPAC’s financial involvement almost daily as a campaign theme. “All of them brought to you by corporate PACs and AIPAC trying to buy a politician who’s going to do their bidding instead of yours,” he said of advertisements supporting Stevens. He later argued that AIPAC’s goal is to ensure American money is “sent abroad to kill other people rather than kept here to invest here.”
Stevens has generally avoided discussing AIPAC itself, insisting that organizations support her because of her work for Michigan. “Anyone who supported me is supporting me because of my dedication to the people of Michigan, and the things that I have done for Michiganders,” she told the Associated Press.
Regarding Israel, however, Stevens has been direct about where she stands.
“As a proud pro-Israel Democrat, I believe America is stronger when we stand with our democratic allies, confront antisemitism and extremism, and keep our promises to our friends abroad and our working families here at home,” Stevens said while accepting the endorsement of Democratic Majority for Israel.
“In the Senate, I’ll keep fighting to protect our democracy, support Israel’s security, ensure the ceasefire holds in Gaza, and deliver for Michiganders in every corner of our state.”
If Stevens wins, the result will show that a well-funded, traditional pro-Israel Democrat can still survive a serious progressive challenge, but it’s going to be an uphill climb in today’s anti-Israel Democrat climate.
If El-Sayed wins – and the latest polling says he is strongly positioned to do exactly that – it will be another unmistakable sign that support for Israel is no longer a requirement for advancement inside the Democratic Party. As a matter of fact, it may even demonstrate that running aggressively against Israel and AIPAC has become a political advantage.
