Netanyahu confidant denies UAE call as reports detail several warnings given to PM before Oct 7 attacks

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s longtime confidant and former Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer supported his former boss, claiming that the reported conversation between Netanyahu and United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) did not take place.

According to the Ha'aretz report, Prime Minister Netanyahu was warned by the UAE leader prior to the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.

Speaking at the Middle East America Dialogue (MEAD) summit in Washington, D.C., this week, Dermer denied knowing about the reported call.

Asked whether such a call occurred, Dermer responded, “No.”

He went on to explain that, due to his role, he would have been privy to such a call and most likely would have been part of it.

“That call didn’t happen. It’s not even the substance of the call; I don’t believe there was any call, and certainly that substance didn’t happen,” Dermer said.

He also claimed that the UAE has denied conducting such a call. However, the UAE did not deny the call; instead, it released a statement refusing to comment on the situation.

Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected the report and has threatened to sue both Ha'aretz and the journalists who wrote the story, who have stood by it, claiming they have evidence to support the claims.

On Wednesday, Ynet cited a senior Middle Eastern intelligence source familiar with the details of the UAE’s relations with Israel at that time, who affirmed that the Emirati government “warned Israel of the possibility of significant and imminent Hamas action against it.”

Netanyahu claims the Ha'aretz story was published for political reasons, intended to defame him ahead of the elections.

The Likud party, of which Netanyahu is the head, said that Palestinian official Mohammed Dahlan, believed by some to be the Palestinian advisor to MBZ mentioned in the Ha'aretz report, was behind its publication.

The Likud statement accused Dahlan of wanting to topple Netanyahu in the elections, so that he could become the leader in Gaza, a move that Netanyahu would likely not support. Likud also accused Shlomi Eldar, one of the authors of the report, of receiving “payment from a left-wing nonprofit associated with Yair Golan's ‘Democrats’ party, in order to spread” the story.

However, several detractors pointed out that Netanyahu himself sent the new head of Shin Bet, David Zini, to meet with Dahlan in May, where they reportedly discussed the situation in Gaza.

Several Israeli analysts pointed out that a leak of the story by Dahlan could harm his relationship with MBZ, and even damage relations between Israel and the UAE, which has generally refrained from making political statements regarding Israel’s government.

Several Hebrew news outlets recently published reports on the multiple warnings that Netanyahu and the government received in the months prior to the Hamas attacks.

Among those warnings was a note from Brig. Gen. Amit Sa’ar, head of the Military Intelligence Research Division, warning the prime minister of the potential for an explosion, and that the divisions over the Judicial Reform legislation were leading to a perception of weakness by Israel's enemies.

The military censor allowed one note to be published on Wednesday. In that note, Brig. Gen. Sa’ar wrote, “There are multiple 'detonating fuses' (destabilizing factors), and the extremists in your government are leading you toward igniting them—and the entire region—and you alone will bear responsibility for the consequences.”

That note came on July 23, 2023, amid the Judicial Reform protests over the Reasonableness Standard Bill, which sought to remove the Supreme Court's ability to rule on the “reasonableness” of a government law or action.

Those protests saw hundreds of thousands of Israelis take to the streets to oppose the coalition government's attempt to quickly pass a series of judicial reforms, which the coalition argued were necessary to prevent judicial overreach by activist justices.

However, the revelation of the letters from Brig. Gen. Sa’ar to Netanyahu also disclosed the existence of a covert channel with Hamas—codenamed “Srugim" — through which information and messages were relayed via the brother of a senior terrorist organization official to Hamas’ Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar.

The revelation of this secret channel is in line with a recent report that Netanyahu was operating a private covert channel with Hamas, a claim he has also denied.

As early as March 2023, then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned Netanyahu that the coalition government’s attempt to push the judicial reforms through without reaching some kind of agreement with opposition parties could cause a rift in Israeli society that would endanger the security of the state.

“These days, more than ever, we are facing unprecedented security challenges,” Gallant said in a statement. “The rift in society penetrates into the IDF and the security agencies; it is a danger to the security of the state.”

That warning led Netanyahu to fire Gallant, before ultimately reinstating him following large protests.

Later in July, then-Shin Bet director Ronen Bar also warned Netanyahu of increased security risks.

“I am giving you a warning for war here, I don't know how to give an exact day and time, but this is a warning,” Bar wrote to Netanyahu in a letter.

Netanyahu later reportedly said Bar was “exaggerating” the threat.

In September 2023, opposition head Yair Lapid, after a security briefing with Netanyahu, gave a speech warning of “a violent flare-up.”

Lapid said that the information he heard “horrified” him.

“I was at the opposition leader's security briefing with the prime minister, and the information I heard horrified me,” Lapid said regarding the warning.

Later that month, Egyptian Intelligence Minister Gen. Abbas Kamel sent a message to the Israeli government, warning of "something unusual, a terrifying operation" about to be launched from Gaza.

While Netanyahu has denied receiving such a warning, the Egyptian government stood by the claim.

With the upcoming elections and the prominent place given to security concerns among many Israeli voters, stories about the behavior of government ministers before the events of Oct. 7 are likely to continue to be a prominent part of the Israeli news cycle.