Iran could launch surprise attack on Israel during missile exercise, IDF warns US - report

Israeli officials warned the U.S. military that an ongoing Iranian missile exercise could be used to cover a surprise attack, according to news outlet Axios, amid reports that Israel is increasingly concerned about the regime’s effort to rebuild its missile capabilities.

Axios’ report on Sunday came shortly after NBC News reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to present a range of options for possible new strikes in Iran during his upcoming meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu has listed the Iranian ballistic missile array as being equally dangerous as its nuclear weapons program, and Israel’s intelligence services have identified intensive efforts to rebuild it after the Israeli Air Force significantly degraded missile stocks and launchers in June.

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who visited Israel on Sunday, said his trip “is about elevating the risk ballistic missiles pose to Israel.”

Speaking to the Jerusalem Post, he stressed that “We cannot allow Iran to produce ballistic missiles because they could overwhelm the Iron Dome. It’s a major threat.”

According to Axios, which cited three informed sources from Israel and the U.S., Israel conveyed its concern over a missile exercise by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that began a few days ago.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, reportedly called the head of U.S. Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, on Saturday to inform him of Israel’s concerns that movements during the exercise could be a cover for a surprise attack.

Cooper visited Tel Aviv to discuss the situation with Zamir on Sunday. Despite the concerns, Israeli sources told the outlet that an actual attack is not likely at the moment, but Israel’s risk tolerance is much lower than in the past.

“The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” an Israeli source said.

U.S. intelligence has not identified any indication of an imminent Iranian attack, an American source added.

The sources highlighted the possibility that another war between Israel and Iran could break out due to exactly these kinds of scenarios that could lead to a miscalculation, where each side seeks to prevent a surprise attack with one of its own.

A source also note that similar concerns were raised in Israel a month and a half ago but that nothing resulted from movements in the Iranian missile array.

Meanwhile, Graham summed up his conclusions from the visit to Israel, saying, “Hamas is regenerating. Iran is regenerating. Hezbollah is trying to build more weapons. We hit them hard, but they’re trying to come back – and on the missile side, that’s a real threat to Israel.”

The senator estimated that a future conflict would focus on destroying Iran’s missile capabilities “so they can’t overwhelm Iron Dome.”

Israeli sources told Axios that estimates say Iran had some 1,500 missiles and around 200 launchers left after the 12-Day War in June, both being reduced by around 50% by Israeli strikes.

Since then, the regime has begun to rebuild but the numbers are not at the level of before the war, and Israeli intelligence estimates that, at the current pace, military action is not necessary in the immediate timeframe, but could become urgent later in 2026.

“I want to destroy their capability to produce ballistic missiles,” Graham told the Post.

“I want to make sure they can never enrich one ounce of uranium or plutonium,” he said, “And I want their proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – dealt with effectively.