High birth rates and education gaps among ultra-Orthodox population could endanger Israel’s future, economist warns

Israeli economist and Tel Aviv University professor Dan Ben-David has warned that Israel’s demographic trends – particularly high birth rates among the ultra-Orthodox Jewish (Haredi) population – could undermine the country’s long-term stability and prosperity.

“If Israel does not halt the combination of high birth rates, inadequate education, and widespread workforce non-participation, the country risks its long-term survival,” Ben-David said, according to a Ynet News report.

In 2022, the fertility rate among Haredim stood at approximately 6.5 children per woman, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics – more than double the national average and far above the OECD mean of around 1.5.

Israel’s fertility rate is one of the highest in the developed world.

Notably, ultra-Orthodox – and certain Arab – communities are contributing most to population growth. However, these groups also face low male employment rates and levels of education comparable to third-world countries.

Ben-David argues that the low level of formal education in these expanding sectors will, over time, push Israel toward a weaker economy "incapable of sustaining advanced health, welfare or security systems."

He previously called for mandatory state education standards for all children in Israel – including mathematics, science, and English – and for a scaling back of welfare benefits, which he says disproportionately favor the Haredi sector.

“Receipt of a full core curriculum will enable Haredim to choose any lifestyle they wish, providing them with the requisite tools to independently support themselves and to make fertility decisions for which they alone will have to be responsible,” he wrote in a 2023 article, "On being fruitful and multiplying…exponentially."

He added that reducing certain state subsidies could reinforce the link between education, employment and family planning.

“The accompanying reduction in welfare benefits that have disproportionately gone their way will help sharpen the focus for all those needing a reminder of the importance of getting a good education and making decisions with regard to the number of children that they can support.”

Demographic projections indicate that if current trends continue, by 2065, the Haredi population could comprise one-quarter to one-third of Israel’s total population, with some forecasts suggesting that half of all babies could be born into ultra-Orthodox families within the next 25 years.

Ben-David has referred to this as a “demographic tidal wave,” that threatens “Israel’s liberal democracy. He believes a larger share of power could come under the influence of what he calls “an extremist strand of Judaism that discriminates against women, minorities, and many others – a type of Judaism that runs counter to the basic values set forth in the Jewish state’s Declaration of Independence.”

Some economists have echoed the concern that without integrating these fast-growing communities into Israel’s modern workforce, the country could face mounting fiscal burdens.

Estimates suggest that the current cost of non-participation is in the tens of billions of shekels each year, a figure that could multiply several-fold by mid-century if no changes are made.

Advocating that a secular core curriculum “be identical and mandatory for all children,” Ben-David stated that “one important byproduct is that more educated people tend to have fewer children.”

Similar education measures have been advocated in the United States by a number of liberal politicians and institutions, and have been widely criticized by Christians as being against the rights of parents to educate their children how they see fit.