Is Trump’s roadmap to Palestinian statehood already doomed?

U.S. President Donald Trump has unveiled a 20-point peace plan that he says could finally create "a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood" and fulfill the aspirations of the Palestinian people.

The proposal goes beyond Hamas' disarmament or achieving security in Gaza. At its core, it revives the long-discussed idea of a two-state solution – one in which Palestinians and Israelis live side by side.

But that vision immediately raises tough questions. 

What happens if the newly formed "Board of Peace" is dissolved or sidelined and the short-term colonial-style administration steps aside? Can the Palestinian Authority (PA) implement the sweeping reforms needed to take control and provide its people with a functioning government, a key requirement for statehood?

After all, this would be the central reason Arab states, along with Palestinians who reject jihadist movements, agree to Trump's plan.

What are some of the changes the PA would need to make? 

First and foremost, it would have to cancel its pay-for-slay program.

PA President Mahmoud Abbas announced he would cancel the controversial program in February. By May, the families of more than 1,600 Palestinians serving terror-related sentences in Israel reportedly lost their funding. Instead, according to Abbas's decree, a non-governmental body would distribute payments based on economic need to all Palestinians, including families of prisoners, but not specifically to them.

After boycotting him during his first term, Abbas reportedly made the move as an overture to Trump. One of the many reasons for the PA's cold shoulder to Trump was the U.S. adoption of the Taylor Force Act in 2018, which barred American funding of the PA if money was being used to pay terrorist stipends.

However, experts pointed out then – and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his speech at the White House – that the program had not actually ended.

"While a suspension of payments to some pay-to-slay recipients marks a step in the right direction, it falls short of dismantling the program," said Joe Truzman, senior research analyst and editor at FDD's Long War Journal, in May. Another FDD fellow, Enia Krivine, said Abbas's move amounted "to little more than a tactical shift in funding mechanisms."

Canceling pay-for-slay would impact at least 35,000 families, according to the PA's head of prisoner affairs, as reported by Reuters, not fewer than 2,000. Most importantly, it would also send a crucial first message: Terrorism is not celebrated or rewarded.

And "first message" really must be stressed, because anyone who has spent time in Palestinian communities in the West Bank knows terrorists are celebrated on street signs, billboards, restaurants, and more.

Ending pay-for-slay would be only the first step. Just as critical, if not more so, would be reforming the Palestinian education system, which for decades has fueled hatred and glorified violence rather than promoting peace.

According to Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, this would mean removing antisemitism, Jew-hatred, and the denial of Israel's right to exist from school textbooks.

"It would mean abandoning the Palestinian national narrative," he told ALL ISRAEL NEWS.

According to IMPACT-SE, the UNRWA textbooks used to educate Palestinian children in the West Bank are "antisemitic and continue to encourage violence, jihad and martyrdom, while peace is not taught as preferable or even possible. Extreme nationalism and Islamist ideologies proliferate throughout the curriculum, including in science and math textbooks."

The European Union pledged in 2021 to remove language inciting violence and hatred, as well as content that "promoted antagonism towards Israel," after a damning report by IMPACT-SE. However, a follow-up study found that the offensive language had not been removed.

Some examples highlighted by IMPACT-SE: Dalal Mughrabi, known for her role in the brutal 1978 terror attack, is praised in the textbooks as a heroic resistance fighter. Israeli rule is described as "murderous and oppressive."

Hirsch said he is not surprised the curriculum has not changed.

"Who is going to roll back what has been taught and tell these children what they have been teaching for the last decades is not true?" Hirsch asked. "What PA leadership will willingly implement these reforms?"

He added that this is not a quick fix. 

Hirsch explained that European or other Western textbooks cannot be helicoptered in. The only viable alternative might be to use books from the United Arab Emirates or other Arab states. But reform would not stop at the curriculum. It would also require retraining or even replacing teachers. 

Hirsch stressed that this is an arduous process.

Another core demand would be elections. However, as Hirsch told ALL ISRAEL NEWS, the chances of these elections being free or fair are slim.

Many Western countries have tied recognition of a Palestinian state to elections. In his speech at the United Nations, Abbas even promised to hold elections within a year.

But Hirsch said bluntly: "Can it happen? Absolutely not. How are they ever going to arrange elections?"

He explained that all Palestinian factions would have to be allowed to participate. That would include Hamas – something the U.S. and Israel cannot and should not accept.

Hamas remains popular among Palestinians in the West Bank. A survey this spring by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah found that 67% of Palestinians in the West Bank are satisfied with Hamas' performance. When asked who they would choose if elections were held between three candidates – Marwan Barghouti of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, and Khaled Mashal of Hamas – Barghouti came out on top with 50% of the vote, followed by Mashal and then Abbas.

Barghouti, however, is serving multiple life sentences. He was convicted of murder, attempted murder, and involvement in terrorist organizations, and was one of the leaders of the Second Intifada.

Mashal is the former head of the Hamas political bureau. He was one of the six leaders targeted by Israel in Doha, Qatar, last month.

On the other hand, Abbas has pledged to amend Palestinian party law so that only groups aligned with the Palestine Liberation Organization can run. Hirsch compared this to "something akin to Soviet Russia – everyone can vote but can only vote for one party, even if corrupt. We can call that elections, but it is not what anyone envisions."

Beyond elections, Hirsch said governance reforms would be nearly impossible. The Palestinian Authority has become entrenched and corrupt, and security chiefs have been tied to terror themselves. 

Hirsch summed it up: "The PA, at least in its current constellation, needs to be dismantled and really started again if the kinds of reforms expected by Western nations are to be achieved."

At the time of this writing, Hamas appears likely to reject Trump's offer. Still, even if the first steps of the plan move forward – and the most urgent priority, the return of Israel's 48 hostages, is achieved – any long-term progress that could bring the plan to points 19 and 20, with Palestinians and Israelis living in "peaceful and prosperous coexistence," still seems far off.

In Hirsch's words: "I believe the Trump plan is destined to fail."