ANALYSIS Is Trump about to turn off US aid spigot to Israel? Not exactly

Is American military aid to Israel about to disappear, or could billions of dollars continue flowing to the Jewish state for another seven years?

That is the multibillion-dollar question hanging over Washington and Jerusalem as President Donald Trump pushes to end direct military assistance to Israel, even while negotiators quietly work on a new agreement that could extend funding through 2033. In short, everything is in flux and nothing is certain until it’s certain.

The latest developments suggest the United States and Israel are moving toward a fundamental restructuring of their military relationship, replacing decades of American financial assistance with a model emphasizing weapons sales, joint defense development and strategic cooperation.

As to exactly how much money Israel will receive – and for how long – remains to be seen.

Speaking to reporters Monday at the G7 foreign ministers meeting in Paris, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio made clear that Trump wants Israel to begin paying for American weapons rather than receiving billions in U.S. taxpayer funding.

“The president’s expectation is that Israel is now prosperous and rich enough to be able to be a sales country,” Rubio said. “They can buy the weapons from us, but we no longer have to provide the financing.” Rubio added that Trump wants the financing arrangement to end “as soon as possible.”

Those comments follow Trump’s surprise announcement on Election Day that approximately $4 billion in annual American assistance would end after 2026.

However, there are fresh reports that paint a much different picture. According to Ynet News and Yedioth Ahronoth, negotiators are discussing a five-year agreement that would preserve approximately $3.3 billion annually in U.S. military financing after the current agreement expires in 2028.

That amounts to approximately $16.5 billion over five years, with direct military financing ending in 2033.

The proposal would effectively cut the length of the next assistance agreement in half, compared with the current 10-year arrangement, without immediately reducing the annual amount. Also, in this potential agreement, American funding for joint missile-defense programs could actually increase.

Under the existing agreement, Israel receives approximately $3.8 billion annually, including $3.3 billion for purchasing American military equipment and another $500 million for joint missile-defense programs.

Those programs include Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow, defense systems that have become increasingly important amid growing missile and drone threats.

The emerging proposal would preserve the $3.3 billion annual weapons-financing component for five additional years while potentially expanding separate missile-defense cooperation.

Former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told ALL ISRAEL NEWS that the transition must not undermine Israel’s ability to defend itself.

“While both sides seem to share a desire to wind down funding to Israel, we need to ensure that they still have access to purchase the military capabilities from the U.S. needed to defend themselves,” Spicer said.

His comments highlight a key factor in the debate: ending American financial assistance does not necessarily mean ending American military support.

Israel could continue purchasing American fighter jets, helicopters, ammunition and advanced weapons systems even without U.S. grants paying for those purchases. Of course, that would place a substantially greater financial burden on Israel’s own defense budget.

Then there’s the American political angle. The political calendar is creating additional urgency. Israeli officials would love to finalize a new memorandum of understanding before the end of 2026, ahead of a new Congress taking office in January following the Democrats’ sweeping midterm victories.

Why? The concern is that a Democratic-controlled Congress could make continued assistance more difficult, particularly as American public support for Israel faces growing political pressure.

After all, Congress retains authority over annual appropriations, which means even a signed agreement may not guarantee every dollar ultimately reaches Israel.

Democrat Congressman Ro Khanna of California has criticized proposals to integrate Israeli defense technology more deeply into the American military, arguing that such arrangements could undermine U.S. sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Trump himself acknowledged that American aid to Israel has become an increasingly attractive political target. “The left uses the $4 billion payment – that everybody knows about, it’s no secret – as a signal of unfairness,” Trump told Fox News on Election Day. He said the issue had become too easy for political opponents to exploit.

That concern gained particular attention during the Michigan Senate campaign, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed criticized U.S. support for Israel as part of the political debate. El-Sayed has actually talked about a de facto arms embargo against Israel. That’s a whole other ball of wax.

There is another complication. Much of the U.S. aid to Israel is spent on weapons manufactured by American defense companies. In other words, U.S. taxpayers fund Israeli military purchases, while American manufacturers receive the majority of the resulting business.

A senior Israeli official told Ynet that moving away from traditional assistance could also damage American industries. “We are moving here from a model of aid to a model of partnership,” the official said, saying that much of the assistance supports the American economy and warning that eliminating it would require significant adjustments.

There are also billions of dollars in outstanding Israeli weapons orders. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel has roughly $10 billion in outstanding U.S. weapons orders beyond nearly $7 billion in assistance already pledged through 2028. This raises questions about how previously negotiated purchases would be financed if Washington abruptly ended its assistance.

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