US economic pressure could trigger new uprising in Iran within months, former Israeli security chief says

Former Israeli national security advisor Brig.-Gen. (res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel believes continued U.S.-led economic pressure on Tehran could trigger significant domestic upheaval in Iran within six to nine months, as Washington seeks to squeeze the regime’s primary source of revenue: oil exports.

"The United States is a superpower that can almost do whatever it wants," Nagel said in an interview with 103FM.

Nagel, who previously headed Israel’s National Security Council and now serves as a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), emphasized that the strategy is to "choke Iran’s economy, but we will really choke Iran’s economy."

Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump declared an “economic D-Day on Iran” and warned of “tremendous consequences” for countries that defied Washington’s sanctions and traded with Tehran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced, “the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY!”

“This will be Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale,” Trump vowed.

Pundits have debated whether Trump’s economic strategy is feasible as Tehran continues to trade with the outside world, particularly with China and Russia.

Nagel acknowledged that Iran still has avenues for retaliation and continues to export oil.

"I do not believe the exact numbers, but let’s assume they are exporting half the amount of fuel they exported before the war. Instead of 20 million barrels, 10 million barrels, they are managing," he assessed.

Nevertheless, Nagel said he remains cautiously optimistic that Washington’s economic pressure campaign could eventually succeed:

"They are choking the Iranian economy, including their main source of cash flow, which is fuel that the Iranians are struggling to sell, and Iranian money is about to run out. Inflation is terrible."

He predicted that prolonged economic hardship could eventually push Iranians back into the streets despite the risks of confronting the regime.

"With six to nine months of this kind of pressure, I would bet that the people will return to the streets. They will not agree to be without electricity, without water," he said.

In January, the ayatollah regime murdered tens of thousands of Iranian protesters who took to the streets demanding freedom and improved standards of living. Trump eventually responded by promising the Iranian people that “help is on its way.” A month later, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against the Iranian regime, known in the U.S. as Operation Epic Fury.

Nagel acknowledged that another popular uprising in Iran would be difficult because of the fear created by the regime’s well-documented brutality.

"When the public takes to the streets and rebels, either they are shot in the street, or they end up hanging from the gallows," he assessed.

However, he said that sustained economic pressure could eventually weaken the regime’s reliance on its own security forces.

"Even the Basij will not want to fight," he predicted, referring to the Iranian regime’s force for domestic repression. "I hope the Basij will join the people."

Nagel said Washington has so far avoided directly targeting Iran’s energy sector because Tehran retains the capability to retaliate against critical energy infrastructure in Arab Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain.

"At this stage the Iranians still have enough power to respond," Nagel stated.

Trump’s advisers are reportedly concerned that if Tehran is pushed too far, the regime could retaliate by attacking energy infrastructure across the Middle East, potentially driving up global oil prices.

"The advisers sitting next to Trump, the advisers who made the agreements: Kushner, Witkoff, and Vance, they tell him: 'This is not good. If we destroy them, they will destroy the energy reserves of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the Emirates and then the price of oil will be $200 dollars.'"