Disputes over IDF conscription bill risk Knesset dissolution and early elections

Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf, chairman of the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, has threatened to collapse the Israeli Knesset and trigger another election over demands for a bill exempting yeshiva students from army conscription. 

In the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox)( daily Hamodia, Goldknopf warned, “Either they put off the conscription bill and we go to summer elections, or they insist on the conscription bill before the budget and the government completes its term,” according to the Times of Israel (TOI).

However, fellow Haredi Knesset Member Avraham Betzalel of the Shas party seemed uninterested in aligning with Goldknopf’s demands. His dismissive response indicated that Shas is not supportive of the ultimatum linking the conscription bill to the budget.

“There is no holy date for the conscription law,” Betzalel told Radio Kol Hai. “I think that a budget and a conscription law should be passed, without tying them together.”

The precarious governing coalition is dependent on ultra-Orthodox allies, with U.S. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly promising that the matter of conscription would be dealt with. However, at this week’s Cabinet meeting, the prime minister indicated that the budget would be passed separately, according to Hebrew press reports. Although Goldknopf has threatened to leave the coalition and dissolve the Knesset, the meeting on Tuesday concluded without any concrete decisions.

The bill’s text will be reviewed and refined by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, with the draft expected to reach the committee within a few weeks. This may not be enough time to allow for the bill proposal to pass into law before the Knesset summer session ends in late July. The current law requires all eligible Haredi men to serve in the IDF and will remain in effect until at least October if a new law is not passed in time.

Seeking to soften the current legislation, the proposed bill will likely stipulate gradually increasing quotas to be conscripted from the Haredi community, ultimately reaching just 50% of each graduating class. The issue of penalties for those ignoring the conscription orders will also be addressed with sanctions, since most of those drafted have refused to comply with the order, despite the exemption for the Orthodox community ending a year ago. 

The goals of exempting the Haredi community from having to serve in the army on one hand, and maintaining a position of influence in a fragile governing coalition on the other, compete, and Orthodox parties are not in full agreement about which should take priority.

Betzalel has indicated that members of his Shas party see the pushing through of the bill as less of a priority, saying, “I believe that a law will be drafted in the near future.” To the contrary, Goldknopf stated, “We don’t think that if the budget is passed before conscription, it is [terrible].”

Likud party Knesset Member Yuli Edelstein, chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said he would “only produce a real conscription law that will significantly increase the IDF’s conscription base,” due to the pressing needs of the war. 

Interior Minister Moshe Arbel has gone even further than others in the Shas party, saying last week that Haredi Jews should serve in the Israeli armed forces. He declared, “It is possible and necessary to serve in the Israel Defense Forces, to remain Haredi even after the conclusion of service. This is the mission of the IDF and this is the mission of the State of Israel.” 

Last year, Arbel said there was no “moral justification to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jewish men who were not studying in a yeshiva from army service,” while reportedly stating that individuals not engaged in full-time Torah study should be drafted “by force.”

The threat to dissolve the coalition over this issue is not new. In January, Aryeh Deri, chairman of the Shas party, also threatened to trigger elections if Netanyahu failed to resolve the status of yeshiva students within two months.

The threat proved empty, as the very next day, a party spokesman denied the position, giving assurances that the party would “not topple the right-wing government” and that there was “no threat and no ultimatum,” according to TOI.

The dilemma is between the perceived existential threats posed to the Orthodox community and way of life, and to Israel as a nation.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has accused Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of bribing the community with budgetary benefits if they accept the postponement of the new bill, describing the move as “shameful politics,” TOI reported.

Lapid posted on 𝕏, “Now Netanyahu and Smotrich have a new offer for the Haredim: agree to postpone the evasion law and you will receive money, lots of money, under the table. How much money? Billions.”

In a press conference, the opposition leader warned Haredi rabbis that Netanyahu was “deceiving” them, saying, "Know that you are being deceived. Netanyahu knows that there will be no draft evasion law; he is just stalling to somehow get through the [Knesset] summer session,” he said.

“All that interests him [Netanyahu] is remaining in power during his cross-examination in court. He is selling you myths and empty promises. He neither knows how nor can he pass the law you want,” Lapid said.

“What we are offering the ultra-Orthodox is what we are offering all the citizens of the country: a functioning government, personal security, tax reductions, lower prices, good relations with the world, and the opportunity to be part of the Israeli story," he promised.