Netanyahu's Likud party rises in poll following Iran operation, surpasses main rival Bennett

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party gained 4 seats in a poll made on Wednesday following the conclusion of the Israeli Operation Rising Lion military offensive against the Iranian regime’s military and nuclear assets.

The Likud party rose to 26 seats in the latest poll, up from 22 in the previous poll. Overall, the Netanyahu-led coalition government rose from 46 to 48 seats, which is still significantly below the minimum required 61 seats for forming a future coalition government. 

The poll indicated that the diverse opposition parties still enjoy a parliamentary majority with 62 seats. If proven accurate on the next election day, Netanyahu’s expected main rival, Naftali Bennett, could potentially form an alternate government without relying on any Arab parties. Most Arab parties in the Israeli Knesset remain politically hostile towards the State of Israel, which has prevented them from joining Israeli governments. 

In June 2021, Bennett became Israel’s prime minister after forming a diverse coalition government with religious, secular, conservative and left-wing parties. In addition, the Arab Ra’am party, led by Mansour Abbas, made history by becoming the first Arab Israeli party to join a coalition government in Jerusalem.

Unlike most other Arab lawmakers, Abbas has condemned Hamas terrorism against Israel and focused on integrating Arab Israeli citizens into Israeli society and its economy. Opposition to Netanyahu was the main glue that kept Bennett’s diverse coalition together. However, the government collapsed after around a year and Bennett eventually announced that he was taking a break from politics. 

Following the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 attack, Bennett spent much of his time defending Israel’s self-defense operations against the Iranian-backed terrorist group and other members of the Iranian-led anti-Israel axis. Bennett also backed Netanyahu’s decision to launch the recent military offensive against Iran. 

By June 2024, polls indicated that Bennett had overtaken Netanyahu in a preference poll among Israeli voters. However, the new poll suggested that Netanyahu’s Likud would emerge as the largest party with 26 seats compared to 24 seats for Bennett’s new party. While Likud was strengthened in the latest poll, its far-right coalition partner, Jewish Power, lost two seats. 

Furthermore, the left-wing opposition The Democrats party gained strength at the expense of Bennett’s party and the centrist National Unity party led by the former Defense Minister Benny Gantz. Overall, the poll suggests that the political opposition maintains its majority over the Netanyahu-led coalition parties. 

The new poll indicated that a slim majority of Israelis – around 52%, back the U.S. and Qatari brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, support for the controversial ceasefire differed across the political spectrum. Some 66% of opposition voters reportedly back the ceasefire compared to only 34% of the coalition voters. Approximately 33% of Israelis reportedly oppose the ceasefire while 15% said they did not know. 

The new poll also indicated that 67% of Israelis back a potential Gaza hostage agreement including a whopping 90% of opposition voters. However, more than half (54%) of conservative coalition voters reject a deal with Hamas in Gaza. 

While the war against Iran strengthened Netanyahu’s Likud party in the polls, public opinion towards the prime minister appeared to be largely unchanged. Some 54% of the respondents said that their position towards Netanyahu remained unchanged after the Iran war. However, around 32% of Israelis signaled a positive shift toward Netanyahu following the war.