Change Bloc divided over coalition with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties after week of negotiations

Nearly one week after Gadi Eisenkot received the mandate to form Israel’s next government, his 48-seat “Change Bloc” appears divided over two possible paths to securing a majority.

On one side, Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, and 'The Democrats' party leader Yair Golan appear to be making efforts to convince the Arab parties Ra’am and Joint List to join their coalition – or at least promise their outside support for a minority government.

With Ra’am’s eight Knesset seats, the Change Bloc would stand at 56 and could establish a relatively stable minority government, if receiving continual support from Joint List.

On the other side, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman has repeatedly ruled out joining a coalition with any support from the Arab parties. Instead, he has reversed his decades-long opposition to the ultra-Orthodox parties and is calling for a full coalition with their support, which would give the Change Bloc a full 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

The bloc's fourth partner, the Together (B'Yachad) party, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, has remained largely quiet. Analysts suspect Bennett is more inclined to support Liberman’s approach, while Lapid reportedly favors Eisenkot and Golan's approach.

On Thursday, Lapid said, “It is impossible to form a government without painful compromises. We likely won’t be able to achieve all our goals or fulfill every single promise within the next six months – but a government will be formed," he said.

A third possibility may be that only a portion of the four Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties will support a Change Bloc coalition. According to Kan News, officials from Ra’am and Joint List are in contact with senior officials from the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party to keep each other updated on negotiations.

The Shas party is reportedly less inclined to defect from the Netanyahu-led bloc.

Former Shas Spokesman Itzik Sudri said UTJ is taking the lead on negotiations with Eisenkot. He told Israel's 103FM radio on Thursday that Shas’ “Sephardic ultra-Orthodox leadership represents a diverse public, not just the hardcore ultra-Orthodox public. It has additional circles of religious and traditional Jews... There is an alliance here between Shas and the Right and traditional Jews that runs deep.”

Asked whether Shas could join a Change bloc government, Sudri said, “I do not see such a possibility.” He also said it is far from certain that all of UTJ’s various factions will come to a final agreement. If they do, he said, they are likely to insist on conditions that the Change Bloc parties may find impossible to accept.

Channel 12 News reported that top leaders of several Hasidic communities represented in UTJ outlined their coalition conditions in a document requiring all 48 Change Bloc lawmakers to sign it. The demands go beyond the concessions reportedly offered so far, including blanket military-service exemptions for yeshiva students and an override clause preventing the Supreme Court from striking down the exemption as unconstitutional. The document also requires the attorney general’s advance approval to avoid legal obstacles.

A proposed override clause was among the most controversial elements of the outgoing government’s judicial reforms.

In another possible concession, Ynet News reported that Change Bloc representatives are considering suspending the arrests of draft dodgers for up to one year while a new IDF draft law is being negotiated. In addition, the Change Bloc may struggle to secure unified support for a coalition with parties its lawmakers attacked during the campaign. Newly elected Yashar party Member of Knesset Elisaf Peretz has reportedly threatened to resign if the party joins a coalition with an Arab party, his mother, Israel Prize laureate Miriam Peretz, told Radio Kol Barama.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly working to prevent the ultra-Orthodox parties from joining Eisenkot, meeting with senior rabbis and sending emissaries to warn that Eisenkot would betray their trust. He is also continuing his public campaign against a coalition relying on Arab parties, warning UTJ and Shas that they could be politically trapped by Ra’am and the Joint List, which would provide the government with a parliamentary “safety net,” according to The Jerusalem Post.