Iran's master plan and why it failed

“Turn to me and be saved,

    all you ends of the earth;

    for I am God, and there is no other.

 By myself I have sworn,

    my mouth has uttered in all integrity

    a word that will not be revoked:

Before me every knee will bow;

    by me every tongue will swear.

They will say of me, ‘In the Lord alone

    are deliverance and strength.’”

All who have raged against him

    will come to him and be put to shame.

But all the descendants of Israel

    will find deliverance in the Lord

    and will make their boast in him.

- Isaiah 45: 2-25

For followers of the Twelver sect of Shiite Islam, such as the ayatollahs of Iran, the existence of a Jewish State on what they regard as 'Muslim soil' is an abomination and a hindrance preventing the return of the Mahdi.

The Mahdi is a kind of a messiah figure who is the twelfth imam, currently in 'occultation' (secret seclusion), who according to Shiite eschatology will emerge in the end times to bring about justice and peace in a world overwhelmed by oppression and corruption, and to establish global Islamic rule.

The Mahdi will precede the coming of the Prophet Issa (Jesus) who will rule the world either with the Mahdi or alone (opinions vary). 

According to the Hadiths (the collected sayings of Mohammed) the "last hour will not come unless the Muslims fight against the Jews, and the Muslims would kill them..." (Sahih Muslim 41:6985, also Sahih al-Bukhari 4:56:791).

Clearly, according to these beliefs, the Jews must be conquered and eradicated. The existence of the Jewish State, Israel, is anathema and must be destroyed. 

The current Ayatollah, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, sees himself as the forerunner preparing the way for the imminent reappearance of the Mahdi. He believes he has a divinely sanctioned imperative to destroy Israel, and he formulated a brilliant plan to do just that, his 'final solution', a war to end all wars, opening the way for the Mahdi.

To this end, Khamenei patiently, over a period of at least 30 years, prepared his battle plan, moving his 'chess pieces' into place for a war by proxy. He 'groomed' various terror groups and Shiite entities to go to war against Israel, providing funding, weapons and training. According to his master plan these proxies would carry out a massive, simultaneous invasion of Israel, while he backed them with thousands of missiles, drones and at least 10 nuclear bombs. 

Hezbollah in Lebanon, perhaps the strongest of the proxies, had around 150,000 rockets, ballistic missiles, as well as hundreds of drones, and thousands of rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) and other smaller munitions. Hezbollah also had a sophisticated army of Iranian (IRGS)-trained soldiers numbering approximately 20,000 full-time soldiers, and an equivalent number of reservists. The whole of southern Lebanon had been turned into a massive military site with underground tunnels, command centers and weapons stockpiles all disguised as civilian villages. 

Hamas, though Sunni, joined with Iran in order to fulfill its desire to eliminate Israel and the Jewish people. Before October 7, 2023, Hamas and the other terror groups in Gaza, had around 50,000 trained operatives, about 30,000 medium and short-range rockets capable of hitting almost every part of Israel, in addition to many thousands of RPGs and mortars and other short-range weapons, hidden in at least 200 km of underground tunnels and command centers, and protected by civilian 'human shields' in schools, hospitals and civilian housing above. 

The Houthis in Yemen were, and still are, being continually supplied by Iran with sophisticated, long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, all capable of hitting Israel. 

Iran-backed terror groups in Iraq also had massed an invasion army of many thousands, and had been supplied with missiles and UAVs from Iran.

Iran itself has close to 1 million military personnel. It also had a massive arsenal of around 2,000 - 4,000 (estimates vary) ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Israel and was busy manufacturing more, aiming to reach a total stockpile of at least 8,000. It also had thousands of UAVs (weaponized drones). It was also furiously enriching uranium in order to produce nuclear warheads. At the outbreak of the war it was estimated that it could make, within weeks, around 10 nuclear bombs with the 600kg of enriched uranium it had already made.

Had all these proxy ‘armies’ attacked Israel simultaneously in surprise, according to the master plan, Israel would have been quickly overwhelmed, outnumbered and outgunned. Most Israelis would have been killed or captured, and the State of Israel pushed into the sea - 'from the River to the Sea'. This would have been genocide on a grand scale. So, what went wrong? 

On October 7, 2023 Hamas and other Gazan terror groups, together with many 'civilians' stormed the Israeli border communities killing around 1200 and taking 251 as hostages. At the same time, thousands of rockets were fired into Israel. Although caught by surprise, many IDF personnel, police and armed civilians sprang into action and somehow managed to prevent a much greater disaster. Hamas had planned to reach Tel Aviv, capture the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, capture military bases and installations, and destroy or capture the nuclear reactor at Dimona. They expected Iran and the other proxies to join their attack. But they did not. Iran sat back. Hezbollah the next day began firing rockets into Israel, but didn't invade, nor did the Iraqi militias, and the Houthis did not join until much later. Why?

I do not know the official explanation, if there is one. I have heard a theory that Hamas 'went off half-cocked' before the others were ready because of leaked information about the existence of the booby-trapped communication devices that later decimated the leadership of Hezbollah. I have also heard that the Iraqi militias failed to receive from Tehran the go-head for invasion, perhaps because the communication network failed for some reason. 

I do know that since the October 7 invasion and massacre, Israel has fought back with courage, determination and has devastated the enemy forces. Much of this amazing success can be attributed to our incredible air force, its coordination with the superb ground forces, and our technological superiority both in terms of intelligence but also in the field of battle. Our military personnel have shown exemplary courage, resilience and skill in battle. Not only that, they also know they are fighting a battle for our very survival as a nation, and the survival of their own loved ones. This is a big advantage in warfare. 

We also have another big advantage - the most important. Yahweh, the God of Israel is fighting on our side. It is the only explanation for our overwhelming success so far. If I hadn't already believed in God before the war, I would now. We have witnessed so many things that could only have occurred by divine intervention. 

Hamas and its allies in Gaza alone have fired 19,000 rockets at Israel, and Hezbollah approximately 3,000 from Lebanon. Iran has fired around 700 ballistic and cruise missiles, and an unknown number of UAVs at Israel, and the Houthis at least 53 missiles and many drones. Some of these failed en route or were intercepted by Israel's defense systems, and those of her allies. Only a few reached Israel and, though there have been casualties, mostly civilian, the number is far, far fewer than one might expect given the intensity of the barrages and the potential destructive power of the missiles. Even the one missile that impacted Ben Gurion Airport somehow 'contrived' to fall in the only open space there and caused only a few minor injuries. This is just one of the many, many such miracles we have seen, not to mention the many we may not have seen nor recognized.

It seems that God has been supernaturally protecting Israel. He has allowed us to suffer to some extent in an effort to cause us to repent of our sins and return to him, but he has been great in his mercy, not because we deserve it in any way, but because we are still his chosen people, called by his name, Israel (which means he who struggles with God). God does not fail to fulfil his promises and his prophetic word. Israel still has a role to play in God's redemption plan. He will not allow our enemies to overcome us. The Mahdi will not come and Islam and Allah will be shown to be a false deception. All the world will see and recognize Jesus and bow down to him. It is Jesus who will bring in a millennium of world peace and he will reign over the whole earth with his saints from Jerusalem. It is the God of Israel who will bring down the new heaven and the new earth as described in the Book of Revelation.

So what now? Our enemies have been weakened and wounded, the Iranian master plan is shattered, and as I write U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are meeting in Washington D.C. to discuss Trump's vision of the Abraham Accords and peace in the Middle East. 

Can there be peace in the Middle East? Perhaps for a time, but our enemies are still alive, still have a large arsenal of weapons and still believe that Israel must be destroyed so that the end times era of 'peace' under Islam can be ushered in. Surrender to the infidels, Jews and Christian, is unthinkable, as is the concept of defeat or failure in a shame-based society. They may make deals, negotiate 'peace' but only to give themselves time to regroup and rearm so that they can attack again. 

Shiites teach and practice the principle of Taqiyyah. For them Taqiyyah means 'the religious obligation to conceal the truth and not showing openly that which may lead to negative consequences in religious or worldly terms'. In other words, it is not only permissible but obligatory to lie to the enemy, make false declarations or false agreements or treaties, if it is advantageous in terms of their ultimate goal, global domination.

This is something Western leaders do not seem to understand. Negotiated treaties and deals made with Shia jihadist entities are not worth the paper they are written on. For Shia jihadists a ceasefire can only be temporary, and long-term peace with the 'infidel' unthinkable. I fear for the gullible West. It is a huge mistake to think that jihadis value life and peace as we do. They value death, martyrdom and war above peace, as long as jihad is incomplete. Their sole overriding goal is world conquest and the subjection of all mankind to Islam.

Iran, even after its humiliating defeat in the recent 12-day war with Israel, declared 'victory' and is still openly declaring its intention not only to destroy the 'little Satan', Israel, but also the 'big Satan', America and the rest of the 'corrupt and infidel West'. 

Iran may be 'down' but it is not yet defeated. A wounded lion is a dangerous beast. Iran still has a sizeable arsenal, and reports vary about the degree of damage done to Iran's nuclear program. Around 600kg of enriched uranium is still 'missing'. There are unconfirmed reports that Russia and China have indicated willingness to help them restock their arsenal and repair their damaged military sites and factories. Israel and the USA are poised to attack Iran again, should they begin to repair their military and nuclear installations and restock their arsenal of missiles.

Hezbollah is not only refusing to disarm as required by the Lebanon ceasefire agreement, it is actively rearming and regrouping and taking up positions in southern Lebanon, contrary to the ceasefire agreement. 

The Houthis are still firing ballistic missiles at Israel on an almost daily basis. 

Estimates are that, though the Hamas military apparatus has been vastly degraded, and perhaps 90% of its leadership killed, there are still around 50,000 Hamas operatives carrying out a guerilla-style war against the IDF, and rockets are still sporadically being fired into Israel from Gaza. Hamas still holds 50 Israeli hostages, 20 of whom are believed to be still alive. 

The war is far from over, and a true, lasting peace will only come when the true Messiah, Yeshua (Jesus), returns. Until then, Satan will direct his ‘minions’ to continue to try to destroy God’s chosen people and derail God’s plan of redemption. He will not succeed, but nor will he give up trying.