I expect more Arab Israelis to vote today

I suspect some Arab citizens will vote today with very little faith in the people they are voting for.

That may sound like an odd starting point for predicting higher turnout. But it is precisely why I believe Arab participation in this election will surpass 60%, up from 53.2% among Arab voters in 2022. People can lose confidence in their politicians and still reach a point where they feel compelled to do something. I think the violence in our communities has brought more of us to that point.

I am making that prediction as an Arab Israeli, before the ballots are counted. I could be wrong. Anyone who claims to know exactly what “the Arab street” will do probably needs to spend more time listening to it. We disagree about parties, leadership, identity, and what our place in this country should look like. But the desire to live without fear runs across those disagreements.

This has been another hard year for Arab society. Organized crime, shootings, and extortion have made insecurity part of ordinary life in too many communities. Innocent people have been caught in violence they had nothing to do with. An unsolved murder leaves a family without justice. It also leaves everyone around that family wondering what would happen if they were next. Over time, that question changes the relationship between citizens and their country.

What does citizenship feel like when you are afraid in your own neighborhood?

I worry about what happens when capable young people begin to see leaving as their most realistic option. A community loses more than residents that way. It loses future teachers, employers, parents, and leaders. The effects accumulate quietly, well beyond the crime statistics.

That is part of what I believe will shape today’s vote.

There is, of course, another possible response to all this: staying home. If previous elections have failed to make your family safer, why should this one be different? That question deserves a serious answer. I would hesitate to call someone apathetic simply because they have stopped believing campaign promises.

Some of that disappointment belongs at the door of Arab parties themselves. In my view, too much of our leadership has grown accustomed to a politics of opposition, with too little to show the people who keep sending them back to the Knesset. Arab parties also cannot decide alone whether coalition doors will open to them. But voters are entitled to ask what their representatives have done with the influence they do possess, and whether the priorities voiced in their name are actually their own. Ra’am’s decision to enter government in 2021 showed that a different approach was possible, though it too must be judged by its results. The question our leaders must answer is straightforward: how has the vote I gave you improved my life?

Still, my expectation is that more voters will decide they cannot afford to withdraw. If Arab turnout rises, politicians will be tempted to claim that they have earned the community’s trust. Some of those ballots may represent something much more conditional: a chance to deliver, given by people who are running out of patience.

Arab representatives should take that seriously. So should every party seeking to govern Israel. Securing votes creates an obligation to the people who cast them. That obligation will be tested in whether young people have credible opportunities beyond the reach of those organizations.

Israelis understand the importance of security. Arab citizens are asking for that understanding to extend fully to their streets, businesses, and homes. A state’s ability to protect its citizens is one of the most basic grounds for their trust in it.

My prediction is that Arab turnout will exceed 60% today. I would welcome that increase. But I would be careful about celebrating it as evidence that confidence has returned.

The more revealing test comes afterward: whether the people who vote today will have a reason to believe in their decision a year from now.