Benny Gantz drops out of election race as polls still predict no clear winner one week before Israel’s elections

“I have always been, and always will be — a soldier of Israel,” said the former IDF Chief of Staff and Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, upon dropping out of the race on Monday, just over a week ahead of the Israeli elections scheduled for Oct. 27.

Nearly all recent polls projected Gantz would fall well short of the 3.25% election threshold, after a months-long, precipitous drop in public support and the defection of numerous party colleagues, including the current frontrunner, Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot.

Many opposition leaders quickly congratulated Gantz on his selfless decision to drop out, and thereby prevent thousands of votes from going to waste beneath the threshold.

“I have never abandoned a battle, and in the battle for unity, I will not turn my back either,” Gantz stated, vowing to continue struggling for “a Zionist unity government that spans political blocs” which he sees as “the only solution in light of the challenges, dangers, and opportunities facing the people of Israel.”

🔴Opposition Bloc: 51 (+1) 🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 50 (-1) 🟢Arab Parties: 15 🟣Reservists-Economic: 4

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 19, 2026

“I appeal to the leaders of the public, from across the entire political spectrum. For the first time in eight years, I am doing so not as a political rival, but as a citizen of the State of Israel: Do not take us back to October 6. Be courageous enough to bring about real change.”

Both blocs have reportedly worked hard to get the smaller parties that are not expected to cross the threshold to quit the race, which enables them to absorb the votes that would otherwise go to waste. This includes parties like Avi Maoz's religious-zionist Noam Party, two new ultra-Orthodox parties, Gantz, Ofer Winter's People of Israel (Amcha Yisrael) and several others.

Also Monday, Moti Leitner, the leader of the new ultra-Orthodox “Charedi Public” party, told Channel 12 that wouldn’t withdraw, amid reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu was pushing him to suspend his campaign as well. The new party has touted relatively moderate stances on IDF service and integration into the society but is widely projected to fall well short of the threshold.

Gantz’s votes are expected to be divided among several parties in both blocs, and therefore, probably won’t significantly change the overall picture.

Knesset Seat Poll 🔵Likud: 30 (+1) 🔴Yashar: 19 (-3) 🔴Together: 10 🔵Shas: 10 🔴Democrats: 10 (+2) 🔵UTJ: 8 🟢Joint List: 8 (+1) 🔵Otzma: 7 🔵RZP-Zehut: 7 🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 6 🟢Ra'am: 5 (-1) +/- Oct. 18 via Filber/Chan14, Oct. 19 https://t.co/6j6DLy6iyG

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 19, 2026

On Tuesday, most major polls continued to predict that neither of the major blocs will reach a majority.

On one end, the poll by the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 which is generally seen as an outlier, gave the Likud 30 seats and a comfortable 62-majority. The opposition bloc only got 45 votes, while the swing parties People of Israel and Reservists/Economic Party both missed the threshold.

Channel 13, which is seen as left-leaning, published the only major poll to predict a near tie, with Eisenkot’s bloc leading the current coalition with 51-50. In this scenario, the Reservists/Economic Party received four seats but wasn’t counted as part of Eisenkot’s bloc, while Netanyahu’s bloc included four seats from People of Israel.

Knesset Seat Poll 🔴Yashar: 24 (+1) 🔵Likud: 21 (+1) 🔴Together: 14 (+1) 🔴Democrats: 9 🟢Joint List: 9 (+1) 🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 8 (-1) 🔵Shas: 8 🔵Otzma: 8 🔵UTJ: 7 🔵RZP-Zehut: 7 (+1) 🟢Ra'am: 5 🟣Reservists-Economic: 0 (-4) +/- Oct. 12 via Midgam/Chan12, Oct. 19 https://t.co/Nf68w4lUqY

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 19, 2026

Both swing parties again missed the threshold in the latest poll published by Channel 12, also seen as left-leaning. Nevertheless, Eisenkot’s bloc led Netanyahu’s with 55-51 as Yashar was projected to receive 24 versus the Likud’s 21 seats.

Most Israeli election experts agree that voter turnout will be among the most crucial aspects determining the outcome of the elections, including whether People of Israel and Reservists/Economic Party will pass the threshold.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot and their respective parties clashed in several highly publicized confrontations over the past few days.

נתניהו, תן למזרחים מיקרופון: ינון ״כלי להעברת מסרים של נתניהו״ מגל קרא למזרחים קופים, אליו הצטרפה מקהלת השופרות. אולי בגלל זה נתניהו לא נותן למזרחים במפלגתו להתראיין בקמפיין? נתניהו אתה בהיסטריה אז סותם פיות - תלמד ממי שיהיה ראש הממשלה המזרחי הראשון ותן למזרחים מיקרופון (ותשים ווליום)

— ישר! עם איזנקוט. (@yashar_eisenkot) October 19, 2026

On Monday, Yashar published an AI-generated video showing Netanyahu eating a lobster, which is not kosher, and attacked him over the ostensible lack of airtime for prominent Mizrahi Likud candidates.

This came in response to an uproar over allegedly racist remarks by pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 pundit Yinon Magal, who had called the Moroccan-background Eisenkot a “monkey” controlled by “Ashkenazi elitists,” though he argued the term was used as underworld slang for a mob frontman.

“That is a highly inappropriate remark, and I condemn it,” Netanyahu later told Radio North 104.5FM.

“Netanyahu, give the Mizrahim a microphone,” Yashar urged the prime minister in the video.

“Netanyahu, you're in hysteria so they're silencing people—learn from the one who will be the first Mizrahi prime minister and give the Mizrahim a microphone (and turn up the volume).”

On Tuesday morning, another clash erupted after Netanyahu told the Haredi Radio station Kol Barama that the arrest of full-time yeshiva students who dodge the military draft “is unacceptable. We need to preserve the world of Torah study because it has preserved us. These arrests are a deliberate attempt to harm the process of drafting Haredim without coercion.”

He also appeared to float the possibility that the current government could legislate an IDF conscription law with extremely broad exemptions from military service for yeshiva students, which reportedly would not include stringent sanctions. “

“I wish we could do that. It also depends on there being goodwill for a new sharing of the burden. Will we be able to do it before the government is formed? Who knows,” Netanyahu said.

Eisenkot in response vowed, “I will not let this happen!”

“One week before the election: Netanyahu promises the ultra-Orthodox a draft-dodging law as a condition for forming the government. The upcoming election is a choice between Netanyahu’s draft-evasion government and a Zionist conscription government led by me,” he said.

Shortly afterward, Israeli media reported that the IDF’s military police detained over 40 ultra-Orthodox men at Ben Gurion Airport for dodging the draft. The police had advanced notice of the arrival of the group and prepared with additional officers and a bus to transport the detainees to an induction base.

The IDF said that the men “are required to enlist and will be tried in accordance with the law.” Those willing to enlist will be receive a suspended sentence and begin their military service immediately, while the others will be sent to military prison.

The incident triggered outrage among the ultra-Orthodox parties, who accused Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara and the IDF of trying to interfere in next week’s election.

Shas said that its faction chairman, MK Yinon Azoulay, is working to secure the detainees’ immediate release.

United Torah Judaism leader Yaakov Asher said that he has been warning for some time “about attempts to disrupt the election process” through “unnecessary arrests,” which he argued were meant to “instill fear and terror in the Haredi public and thereby prevent the democratic process of elections.”