After Iran win, will Israel blow it in Gaza?

Israel should pursue a hostage-for-ceasefire deal with Hamas – but not simply because U.S. President Donald Trump has brokered an end to its 12-day war with Iran.

A rushed agreement risks squandering a rare moment of strategic leverage following a significant military victory. Instead, Israel must recognize its strengthened position and use it to ensure that all 50 hostages are returned and that Hamas is completely ousted from Gaza.

For more than 20 months, Israel has waged a grinding war in Gaza. The IDF has secured several tactical victories, but it has yet to achieve the war’s three strategic goals: dismantling Hamas’ political and military rule, returning all of the hostages, and eliminating the Gaza threat to Israel.

The toll has been devastating. Hundreds of Israeli soldiers have been killed. The war has exposed deep divisions within the country, where the stated objectives often seem to conflict – continued fighting may hinder hostage recovery, while efforts to free the hostages can undercut military progress.

Now, in the wake of a 12-day war with Iran, during which most of Tehran’s nuclear program was reportedly destroyed, Israel finds itself at another critical juncture. That confrontation, which claimed 28 Israeli lives and left thousands wounded, ended with a fragile ceasefire. And now, new reports suggest that Israel and Hamas may once again be on the verge of a U.S.-brokered deal of their own.

But even this emerging agreement, according to leaked details, would not bring all the hostages home. 

Of the estimated 50 still in captivity, only a portion would be released in the initial phase: eight living hostages and six deceased would be returned upon implementation, followed by two more over a 60-day ceasefire period –16 hostages in total.

The plan reportedly envisions the ceasefire period as a window to negotiate an end to the war, including the release of the remaining 34 hostages.

But what assurance is there that phase two will succeed? 

The previous ceasefire agreement never reached its second phase, and as a result, the hostages have endured six more agonizing months in captivity.

In contrast, over the past 90 days, the IDF has recovered the bodies of eight hostages, while the United States helped secure the release of another.

On May 12, IDF American-Israeli soldier Edan Alexander was released and returned to Israel as part of a U.S.-brokered deal. 

On June 5, the IDF and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) located and recovered the bodies of Judith Weinstein Haggai and her husband Gad Haggai in the Khan Younis area. Three days later, they recovered the body of Thai national Nattapong Pinta. Another three days after that, they found the bodies of Yair Yaakov and Aviv Atzili. Finally, on June 21, the IDF and Shin Bet rescued the bodies of Ofra Keidar, Yonatan Samerano, and Shay Levinson.

As the IDF expands its control over the Gaza Strip – with military analysts telling ALL ISRAEL NEWS that approximately 70% of the territory is now under Israeli military occupation – soldiers are slowly but steadily finding murdered captives and returning them to their families in Israel.

Hamas, meanwhile, has little incentive to give up the remaining hostages voluntarily. Doing so would mean forfeiting its last shred of leverage over Israel. 

With Iran weakened by its recent 12-day battle with Israel and the United States, it cannot provide the kind of backing it once did. But that does not mean Hamas is ready to relinquish its grip on Gaza, surrender its weapons, or release the rest of the hostages.

Families of hostages still held in Gaza are reportedly trying to secure a meeting with Trump, according to Israel’s N12 News. They believe Trump could use his influence to pressure both the mediators and the parties involved – Hamas and the Israeli government – to finalize a deal. Several reports suggest Trump is encouraging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wrap up the Gaza war, especially following the success of the recent 12-day campaign against Iran.

Speaking at a NATO summit on Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. attack on Iran had helped jumpstart progress in the hostage-for-ceasefire negotiations with Hamas.

“I think that because of this attack that we made… we’re going to have some very good news,” he said. “Gaza is very close.”

Still, Hamas has yet to respond to the framework proposed by the U.S. before the Iran war – a proposal Israel has already accepted. Talks have remained mostly frozen since late May.

Hamas and other Gaza terror groups are currently holding 50 hostages: 49 kidnapped during the October 7 massacre, along with the body of IDF soldier Hadar Goldin, who was killed and taken during Operation Protective Edge in 2014. The IDF has confirmed that 28 of the hostages are dead. Twenty are believed to be alive, and the status of two remains unknown.

According to Israel Hayom and other Israeli outlets, other elements being discussed as part of the current ceasefire deal go beyond hostage releases. These include a broader regional agreement: normalization of ties between Israel and both Syria and Saudi Arabia under the framework of the Abraham Accords, and Israeli support for the establishment of a future Palestinian state. In return, the United States would officially recognize Israeli sovereignty over certain parts of the West Bank.

The plan would also reportedly include the exile of Hamas leadership from Gaza and interim governance of the Strip by four Arab countries, two of which would be Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

On paper, the current plan may seem strategic. But Hamas remains a ruthless terror group that cannot be trusted – which is why the only deal worth signing is a one-phase agreement that ends the war, guarantees Hamas can no longer threaten Israel, and brings every last hostage home.

Agreeing to a ceasefire that allows Hamas 60 days to regroup and rearm – especially after Israel fought so hard and paid such a high price in soldiers’ lives over the past more than 20 months – doesn’t add up. In the last 90 days, the IDF managed to recover more than half of the number of hostages through military operations as are now being offered in the first phase of this proposed deal. Why pause the momentum now without assurance that the rest will come home?

Israel must not fold. It should make clear that, with full American backing, it is prepared to do to Hamas what it just did to Iran militarily. 

The Gaza war cannot end without the right deal.

If Israel backs down now, Hamas could still rule. The hostages may never return. And worst of all, Gaza will remain what it has long been: a volatile threat just across Israel’s southern border.