Polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs still head-to-head, as camps try to ban parties from the other side

Less than two months before the Israeli elections that are scheduled for late October, most recent polls continue to project a head-to-head race, with a slight advantage for the opposition bloc—though both sides are well short of a majority, raising the specter of repeat elections.

Over the past week, parties from both sides have tried to ban other parties from running in the elections, in efforts unlikely to succeed but seemingly aimed mainly at mobilizing their own voter bases.

In polls published by state broadcaster Kan 11 News and the private Channel 12 News, the current coalition received 52 and 50 seats, respectively, while the opposition bloc was projected to reach 52 and 54 seats.

🔴Opposition Bloc: 54 (-3)
🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 50 (-2)
🟢Arab Parties: 12 (+1)
🟣Others: 4 (+4) https://t.co/zXJhnWZlQg

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) September 14, 2026

Despite the close race, the bloc led by the Yashar Party and its chairman, Gadi Eisenkot, has the advantage, as both polls gave the new Reservists/Economic party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha four mandates. The party is widely seen as leaning toward the Eisenkot bloc.

In addition, the Islamist Ra’am Party of Mansour Abbas, which could lend indirect support to an Eisenkot-led government, received four to five seats.

However, Channel 12’s political correspondent Amit Segal cautioned that recent changes, including former police official Yoav Segalovitz joining Ra’am or the new smaller parties crossing the threshold, actually decreased the number of votes of the Eisenkot bloc, still leaving it well short of the required 61-seat majority.

🔴Opposition Bloc: 52
🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 52
🟢Arab Parties: 12
🟣Others: 4

Hung Knesset. https://t.co/aWLtVa1vva

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) September 14, 2026

“It should be remembered that Gadi Eisenkot repeatedly commits that at most, there will be a coalition relying on the Arab parties’ abstention, and that there will be no negotiations with them. If each side keeps its word, the only conclusion from tonight’s poll is: [new] elections in March 2027,” Segal assessed.

Over the past week, much of the attention has gone to several requests by parties to ban other parties from running in the elections. According to the “Basic Law: The Knesset,” a party that is banned must fulfill one of the following conditions:

• Denial of the existence of the State of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.

• Incitement to racism.

• Support for an armed struggle by an enemy state or a terrorist organization against the State of Israel.

The far-left Democratic Party filed a request to bar National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) over its undermining of democracy.

Accusing the party of following the ideology of murdered extremist rabbi Meir Kahane, the Democrats argued that Jewish Power is “are using their governmental power and the immunity granted to them to crush the rule of law, violate judicial orders, refuse to recognize the authority of the High Court of Justice, harm state security and incite violent racism.”

Preference for Prime Minister

🟥Eisenkot: 39% (+1)
🟦Netanyahu: 36% (+1)
❌Neither: 25%

🟦Netanyahu: 37%
🟥Bennett: 32%
❌Neither: 31%

🟥Eisenkot: 52% (+16)
🟥Bennett: 24% (+7)
❌Neither: 24%

+/- Sep. 6

via Kantar/Kan, Sep. 14

— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) September 14, 2026

The party hit back by filing its own petition to ban The Democrats, accusing it of inciting racism and undermining Israel’s character as both a Jewish and democratic state by citing comments by its leader Yair Golan disparaging West Bank settlers and ultra-Orthodox Jews.

Jewish Power had already filed another petition to ban the Ra’am party over its alleged rejection of Israel’s existence as a Jewish state and support for armed struggle against it.

The Likud party likewise asked to ban Ra’am, as well as the joint list of the three other Arab parties, for the same reasons.

It stated that “there is no place in the Knesset of Israel for those who harm IDF soldiers and are unable to say that Hamas and Hezbollah are terrorist organizations. These terrorist supporters are the natural partners of Gadi Eisenkot, with whom he wants to form a government together with Yair Golan and Avigdor Liberman. This must not be allowed to happen."

Against the background of the polls projecting that no bloc could reach a majority in its current makeup, several politicians also discussed alternative solutions to avoid repeat elections.

Yashar’s number 2, the former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen, told Channel 12 that his party could conceivably join a coalition with the Likud, without Netanyahu, or even with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism/Zehut party.

“I would approach them if they accepted our principles,” Cohen said. However, he firmly ruled out a coalition with Ben Gvir.

For his part, the Jewish Power chairman has been running a campaign to mobilize his voter base by claiming that Netanyahu intends to throw him under the bus and join a centrist government without him. Ben Gvir and his own new number 2, former Likud firebrand Tally Gotliv, have been echoing this message repeatedly over the past week.

Ynet News reported this week that the Likud responded by sending reassuring messages vowing there is no intention of replacing Jewish Power with a party from the opposition and requesting him to stop the campaign. After a meeting between Netanyahu and Gotliv, she wrote that “he tried to convince me that Itamar is wrong and that he will not sit with Eisenkot. I replied that Ben-Gvir is right, and that the prime minister has always preferred to rely on left-wing and centrist parties.”

A senior Likud official warned that “Ben Gvir on his own, without Smotrich, with a large number of seats—that would be a major [negative] event for the right.”

“It would raise many questions about where the Israeli right is headed, and beyond that, it would enable him to demand senior and important portfolios for himself and Gotliv – something Netanyahu does not want.”

Meanwhile, with the Reservists/Economic party widely projected to cross the threshold, it could hold the keys to creating a future coalition. Channel 12 analyst Yair Sherki assessed that its rising strength is harming the Netanyahu bloc and predicts the party would join Eisenkot.

“Hendel, first of all, has already been in this position, and said that he does not intend to join Netanyahu, but would be willing to join Eisenkot. As for Zelekha, what interests him is being finance minister… From his perspective, whoever gives him the position – he will go with them.”

“The breakdown shows that at least half of their votes – and I say this cautiously – actually come from the right,” Sherki explained.

“Bottom line: a little more than five weeks remain until the election, but in practice it is only three to four weeks of actual campaigning. The campaigns will begin only after the holidays, after October 7.”