Paving way to surprise coalition? Liberman announces support for gov’t with ultra-Orthodox party, Eisenkot bloc

The “Change Bloc,” led by Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot, is reportedly considering forming a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ), despite months of campaigning for universal military service.

Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Liberman publicly announced his support for the move on Friday, soon receiving backing from ['The Democrats' and UTJ. However, it remains unclear whether the other members of the Change Bloc, who campaigned on passing a strict new IDF draft law, will agree.

For the Change Bloc to reach the necessary 61-seat majority, it would need to add the seats of both UTJ (7) and Shas (6) to its own 48 seats. While UTJ has publicly broken with the prime minister, Shas supported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as its candidate.

Eisenkot received substantially more support for forming a government during consultations with President Isaac Herzog in the preceding days, winning 67 votes compared to Netanyahu's 46. UTJ abstained.

Herzog said he would announce on Sunday whom he would task with forming a government. He noted that while the "results of the consultations may appear clear," his role is “to determine who has the ability to form a government, and that is not entirely clear, given the mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves.”

However, just hours later, Liberman appeared to backtrack on one of his longstanding policies of demanding harsh penalties for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft dodgers and supporting a strict military draft law. He argued that a government is now needed quickly to “prevent the destruction” of the Jewish state.

Despite expressing readiness to join a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties, Liberman criticized Eisenkot for past decisions and ruled out a rotation agreement for the role of prime minister, suggesting that he aims to lead the government himself.

“About 12 days before the most recent election, I warned that the ‘largest party’ campaign and the talk of forming a minority government were seriously harming the Change Bloc,” he said.

Declaring that he is prepared for “painful compromises,” Liberman said his three main conditions were: ending the “Netanyahu era,” preventing new elections, and ruling out a minority government that relies on the abstention of the Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am.

“On all other issues, it is permissible and desirable to be flexible and compromise… this includes the issue of the conscription law. This pains me, and I know it pains many others as well,” Liberman wrote.

He added, “But in light of the many challenges we are currently facing, the national interest of the State of Israel and the Jewish people must stand above every other consideration.”

“We must make every possible effort to form a coalition of 61 Knesset members, without the Joint List and Ra’am,” he urged, saying once such a coalition is established, that "it will very likely be possible to bring in another three or four Knesset members from the Likud.”

UTJ leader Yaakov Asher welcomed the proposal, saying he was encouraged “to discover the flexibility of all the political players on the issue of military conscription. It is painful to think how much incitement and hatred between brothers could have been avoided if that same flexibility had been shown in recent years.”

However, Shas’ stance on this development remains unclear. On Thursday, Channel 12 reported that members of the bloc believed Shas would be pressured to support UTJ’s move by its senior rabbis, particularly Rabbi Lando.

For the first time in decades, UTJ refused to recommend Netanyahu as its top candidate for prime minister. However, UTJ is reportedly not unified regarding its strategy. Channel 12 reported that at least one lawmaker, Knesset Member Meir Porush, is skeptical of joining a coalition with the Change Bloc, and has therefore been absent from the President’s Residence.

The Democrats’ chairman Yair Golan signaled support in a statement on Friday, noting that the bloc intends to “establish a national emergency government – and quickly.”

“This is a real danger to Israel and its security. And we have no time to waste on political games,” he said.

Appearing to set aside past promises to draft ultra-Orthodox men into the IDF, Golan concluded: “This is what we promised you: to form a government. To send Netanyahu home. And to save democracy and Israel’s security. We are on it. We have a majority. We have an opportunity. And we have a historic responsibility not to let it slip away.”

Eisenkot, however, had reportedly been more interested in pursuing a minority government relying on outside support from the Arab parties.

In a statement on Thursday, Yashar said it planned to form “a national emergency government… immediately.”

“Now, all public leaders who genuinely have Israel’s best interests at heart are called upon to rise to the occasion, set aside every political and personal consideration, and ensure that a government is formed as soon as possible.”

Commenting on Liberman’s unexpected shift on the Haredi draft issue, Yisrael Hayom political analyst Ariel Kahana described the veteran politician's move as a high-risk gamble.

“If his move against the Haredim succeeds, all the better from his perspective. He gets a stable government with them, Bibi is gone, and the Likud – or at least part of it – might join. And everyone can get on with their lives,” Kahana wrote.

“But if the move fails, either we go to another election (I don’t know what Liberman would even do in that scenario – after all, this morning he alienated his own base), or he will have a good reason to return to Netanyahu. He’ll tell Bennett and Eisenkot: ‘I offered you a government, and you didn’t listen.’"

"To avoid yet another election, this is the only option – an option, incidentally, that he really, really, really does not want,” Kahana said.