Netanyahu leading after election—but it's still anyone's game

JERUSALEM—With over 60% of the vote counted after Election Day in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has emerged as the clear frontrunner, however the prime minister’s chances of building a majority coalition appear to remain just out of reach.

In other words, it’s still anyone’s game.

The final results are expected to be announced Thursday night. Then on Friday, leaders of all of the parties elected to the 26th Knesset will meet with Israeli President Isaac Herzog to give their recommendation as to who should get the first shot at building a coalition.

At least based on campaign promises, many of them are unlikely to recommend Netanyahu. So while the prime minister appears to be walking away with the most seats, this doesn’t automatically mean he will get the first shot at building a government.

On the other hand, the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, would need the support of the Arab parties to get to a majority, which would still be slim, according to the current vote count.

The Likud-led bloc includes two national religious parties—Jewish Power and Religious Zionism—and two ultra-Orthodox parties—Shas and United Torah Judaism. Most of them, including Likud, lost seats compared to their size in the current government, contributing to the coalition’s decline. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's Jewish Power party and UTJ both appear to have gained a seat according to the latest count.

Nevertheless, every party that crossed the threshold on Tuesday claimed an element of victory in speeches Tuesday night through the early hours of the morning.

Speaking almost immediately after the voting ended, Eisenkott said the exit polls show that public “voted for change” and handed Netanyahu a no-confidence vote.

“The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust. The Israeli public voted against Netanyahu continuing as prime minister,” he said, calling on Netanyahu to retire from politics rather than cause another election.

Netanyahu spoke at 3 a.m., five hours after the polls closed.

“The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public,” Netanyahu said. “We need a right-wing, nationalist, strong government. That’s what has to be done.”

He also waged war against any coalition that involves “anti-Zionist Arab parties” to build a majority, something the “Change bloc” would need to oust the current government.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, whose party appears to have gained 12 to 13 seats, said the results show that Netanyahu lost.

“The people of Israel have stood up and spoken: Netanyahu has lost, and the October-7 government is going home,” he said. “We will do everything, without ego, to form a Zionist government of the alliance of those who serve. Let’s get to work. We have a country to mend.”

The Arab-led parties were one of the big surprises in this election, projected to win a historic combined 16 to 18 seats. Joint List leaders Yousef Jabareen said he “hopes to send Bibi [Netanyahu], [Bezalel] Smotrich, and the bloodstained government home.”

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and leader of the Religious Zionism party dismissed talk of defeat for the pro-Netanyahu coalition.

“We won’t let you celebrate. They are celebrating because they think they’ll succeed in reversing our settlement revolution in Judea and Samaria,” he said. “They won’t succeed. Jewish settlements will rise in Gaza.”

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