Iranian leader Khamenei pressured to negotiate with US amid fears war could collapse ayatollah regime - report

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was strongly advised by senior officials to engage in negotiations with the United States in order to avert a potential war that could threaten the regime’s survival, according to a New York Times report published Friday.

The report, which cites two senior Iranian officials, aimed to explain why the conservative Iranian leader eventually changed his mind and approved negotiations with the Trump administration on Tehran’s covert nuclear program.

“If Iran refused talks or if the negotiations failed, the officials told Mr. Khamenei, military strikes on Iran’s two main nuclear sites, Natanz and Fordow, would be inevitable,” the Iranian officials reportedly stated.

The Iranian regime has been seriously weakened by a faltering economy and the severe blows Israel has delivered to its aerial defense system and its regional terror proxies – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat who was part of Tehran’s nuclear negotiations team during the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal in 2015, emphasized that Khamenei is ultimately guided by the goal of preserving the ayatollah regime.

“Mr. Khamenei’s turnaround demonstrates his long-held core principle that ‘preserving the regime is the most necessary of the necessities,’” Mousavian, a visiting fellow at Princeton University, assessed.

The Iranian regime has previously dismissed warnings issued by the United States and Israel about potential military strikes on Tehran’s covert nuclear sites. However, according to the New York Times (NYT) report, this time the Iranian regime may believe the military threat is real.

U.S. President Donald Trump has stressed that the Iranian regime must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons and has warned of severe consequences if the ayatollahs refuse to engage in negotiations with Washington.

Earlier this week, Trump cautioned that "Iran would be in great danger" if the negotiations set to begin Saturday in Oman fail to produce a satisfactory outcome. He made it clear to the ayatollah regime that the alternative to a diplomatic resolution would be a military response – one that would involve the Jewish state.

“If it requires military, we’re going to have military. Israel will obviously be very much involved in that – it’ll be the leader of that,” Trump recently warned, stressing that Washington would ultimately decide the path.

“Nobody leads us. We do what we want to do,” he said. Trump’s assertive stance and credible military threat may have been key factors in pressuring the ayatollahs to return to the negotiating table, according to the NYT.

Senior Iranian officials are concerned that a combination of war with the U.S. and Israel and the socio-economic unrest in Iran could threaten the survival of the ayatollah regime.

On Friday, Khamenei’s advisor, Ali Shamkhani, wrote on 𝕏 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was traveling to Oman “with full authority for indirect negotiations with America.”

“Tehran seeks a real, just deal – away from media show and rhetoric. Key proposals are ready. If Washington shows determination for a deal, the path to agreement will be clear,” Shamkhani stated in a message posted in Farsi, English, Arabic, Russian and Hebrew.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, claimed Tehran was “giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance.”

The Arab Gulf state of Oman will once again act as a mediator between Iran and the United States. Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s Middle East envoy, will represent Washington, while Araghchi will speak on behalf of Tehran. Trump has maintained that the negotiations will be direct, while the Iranian regime insists they will be conducted indirectly.