Israel’s strikes on Iran energize dissidents, could bring about regime’s fall after 45 years of tyranny

For over 45 years, the radical Islamist regime of the Iranian ayatollahs has kept an iron grip on the country also known as Persia, and violently suppressed several large revolts, most recently the Mahsa Amini protest two years ago.

However, Israel’s unprecedented strikes that struck the regime’s nuclear sites and decapitated its military leadership have opened a window of opportunity for dissidents inside and outside the country.

“We have indications that senior leaders in Iran are already packing their bags. They sense what’s coming,” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday.

As is often the case, the Iranian exile community has been at the forefront of criticizing the regime, with some members even praising the Israeli strikes.

Iran’s most famous soccer player, the now-retired Ali Karimi, has been a vocal critic of the ayatollah regime for years.

In a post on 𝕏 addressed to the “Islamic Republic and its supporters,” Karimi wrote, “The Israeli attack is the bill for your forty-six years of drunkenness, riots, and slander. Pay for it yourself and your thugs… Go and enter the black hole of history. Get lost, enemies of Iran and Iranians.”

He closed the post with “a curse on the Islamic Republic,” and “#KingRezaPahlavi.”

The same Reza Pahlavi, former crown prince and son of the last Shah of Iran – who was expelled by the ayatollahs during the revolution of 1979 – published his own statement about the situation on Saturday.

“The Islamic Republic and its incompetent and criminal leaders have dragged Iran into war and are responsible for the situation,” he declared.

The Islamic Republic and its incompetent and criminal leaders have dragged Iran into war.

Here is my message to my compatriots: Iran belongs to you, and reclaiming it is in your hands. pic.twitter.com/qqvr5QTkKe

— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 14, 2025

Pahlavi, who has been living in exile in the U.S. since his family was expelled, continued, “The regime is now at its most fragile and weakest state yet its ultimate collapse can only be achieved through the powerful hands of the great Iranian nation.”

Pahlavi called on security services to detach themselves from the regime, and urged Iranians to perform acts of defiance, including not showing up to work or arriving late. He noted that even this could “deliver an effective blow” to the regime.

Meanwhile, there have been no reports of public protests against the regime since the war started. However, video footage circulating on social media showed Iranians celebrating the Israeli strikes in private, and several media outlets published interviews with Iranians who expressed their hope that the war would help collapse the regime.

“On the moderate-to-opposition side of the spectrum, nobody is shedding a tear for the regime figures targeted,” wrote Tobias Schneider, a research fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi).

On 𝕏, Schneider wrote about several phone calls he had with people in Iran.

“One old acquaintance who was involved in protests that ended in a horrid massacre in 2023 only expressed frustration that they wouldn't get to string the guys up themselves. What anger there is over innocent lives lost is mainly directed at the regime itself,” he added.

“One of my friends from Tehran shared a meme about how the blown-out apartments were mostly penthouses in fancy high-rises. The strikes are not seen as particularly indiscriminate, though one contact asked why they couldn't just blow them up at their offices instead?”

Schneider wrote, “Among the moderates-conservatives, there was a lot of uncertainty about the future of the regime… In general, the total failure of the country's security services over the last 18 months is seen as symptomatic of a deep-seated rot, widespread tacit disloyalties, and petty corruption, among other issues.”

Much of the caustic opposition comments against the regime found their way to the internet, despite new limitations imposed by the Iranian government.

According to the Telegram channel “Middle East Insight,” run by two regional experts, Iran’s social media channels are full of videos mocking the regime and celebrating the attacks.

Some showed Iranians shouting “Death to Khamenei” from their houses amid the attacks. Other social media posts called on Israel to eliminate Khamenei and other officials, while others uploaded pictures of destroyed sites or sites they would like to see destroyed.

Dissidents also mocked Iran's announcement of purported successes against Israel, including false claims that Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets had been shot down.

Despite these developments, public protests have yet to erupt, and there are no clear signs that the regime is on the verge of collapse.

Another critical factor that could influence the course of events is where the IAF will continue to strike. So far, only military installations and regime officials have been targeted.

However, Ynet News reported that the regime deliberately targeted civilian areas in Israel with some of its ballistic missile launches. Defense Minister Israel Katz already vowed that if this would continue, “Tehran will burn.”

“There is concern that [the Iranians] will want to expand this in the coming days and focus the attacks on actual civilians. If they do so, the consequences will be severe for the Islamic Republic. The goal of the operation is not to overthrow the ayatollahs' rule, but the situation could change quickly,” wrote Nadav Eyal, Ynet's senior columnist.