Final round of polls predicts Israel to enter new political stalemate, no bloc close to 61-seat majority

Israel appears to be heading into political deadlock once again, as the final round of polls before Tuesday's election indicates that neither bloc is likely to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

Under Israeli law, news outlets were required to publish their final election polls by last Friday.

None of the polls showed major surprises, continuing the trends of the past few months that projected a slight lead for the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, with 52–56 seats. However. the bloc is also expected to fall short of a majority – at least without the support of the Arab parties.

On the other side of the political map, the Benjamin Netanyahu-led bloc is widely projected to win 50-52 seats, according to most polls, except for two that are generally viewed as leaning slightly toward the right and therefore considered less reliable.

Final Pre-Election Polls: The Big Picture 🔵Filber: Netanyahu Bloc majority 🔴Midgam & Rosner: Opposition-Ra'am majority possible ⚪All others: Deadlock https://t.co/OmZE5JXic5
— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 25, 2026

Those polls. published by Channel 14 and i24 News, projected the bloc to win, receiving 62 and 59 seats, respectively. However, the i24 News pollster Direct Polls was the most accurate in the 2022 elections.

The final results could be significantly influenced by the two new parties, People of Israel (Amcha Yisrael) and the Reservists/Economic party, who have consistently struggled to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold in the polls.

Knesset Seat Poll 🔵Likud: 30 🔴Yashar: 20 🔴Together: 11 (+1) 🔵Shas: 9 (-1) 🔴Democrats: 8 (-1) 🟢Joint List: 8 🔵Otzma: 8 🔵UTJ: 8 (+1) 🔵RZP-Zehut: 7 🟢Ra'am: 6 🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 5 +/- Oct. 21 via Filber/Chan14, Oct. 22 https://t.co/9FmMTB8slU
— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 22, 2026

The last round of major polls showed People of Israel narrowly missing the threshold, except for the i24 News poll.

The Reservists/Economic party was projected to clear the threshold only by Maariv and Kan News, among the larger outlets.

Knesset Seat Poll 🔴Yashar: 22 (-1) 🔵Likud: 20 (-1) 🔴Together: 14 🟢Joint List: 9 🔴Democrats: 8 🔵Otzma: 8 🔵UTJ: 8 (+1) 🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 8 (+1) 🔵Shas: 7 (-1) 🔵RZP-Zehut: 7 (+1) 🟢Ra'am: 5 🟣Reservists-Economic: 4 +/- Oct. 22 via Kantar/Kan, Oct. 23 n=554 https://t.co/meDIVEKP4v
— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 23, 2026

The poll results published by Kan News and conducted by Kantar have been relatively close to the average between right- and left-leaning outlier polls over the past few months.

The final poll projected the opposition bloc to lead 52-50 over the coalition bloc, with another 4 seats for the Reservists/Economic – which is seen as leaning toward the Eisenkot-led bloc – and another 14 combined seats going to the Arab Joint List and Ra’am parties.

Eisenkot's Yashar party fell by one seat to 22, leading the Likud, which also fell by one seat to 20. The next largest party is Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s Together (B'Yachad) party, which has continued an upward climb and rose to 14.

Knesset Seat Poll 🔴Yashar: 23 🔵Likud: 21 (+2) 🔴Together: 15 🔴Democrats: 10 (+1) 🟢Joint List: 9 🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 8 🔵Shas: 8 🔵Otzma: 8 (+1) 🔵UTJ: 7 🔵RZP-Zehut: 6 🟢Ra'am: 5 🔵Winter: 0 (-4) +/- Oct. 21 via Midgam/Chan12, Oct. 23 https://t.co/SvbnUtjcWM
— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 23, 2026

The Joint List received nine seats, ahead of United Torah Judaism, Jewish Power, Yisrael Beitenu and The Democrats – with eight seats each. Shas and Religious Zionism/Zehut reached seven seats each, while Ra’am received five mandates.

Relatively close beneath the threshold were People of Israel, the new Haredi Public party and the Noam party.

Knesset Seat Poll 🔴Yashar: 22 (+2) 🔵Likud: 19 🔴Together: 14 🔴Democrats: 10 🟢Joint List: 9 🔵UTJ: 8 🔵RZP-Zehut: 8 🔴Yisrael Beteinu: 8 🔵Otzma: 8 (+1) 🔵Shas: 7 🟢Ra'am: 7 (+1) 🟣Reservists-Economic: 0 (-4) +/- Oct. 21 via Rosner/Chan13, Oct. 23 https://t.co/kFJ6cZ1yaH
— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 23, 2026

An Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) poll published on Friday found that a slight majority of Israelis favor holding new elections if neither bloc succeeds in forming a new government on Tuesday.

Among Jewish Israelis, 35% said they would want new elections, 28% want a cross-bloc unity government with a rotation of prime ministers, and 23% want a minority government, with the rest responding they did not know.

However, the poll showed significant differences according to political affiliation. Almost 40% of self-identified right-wingers would prefer new elections, and only 13% said they would want a minority government.

If neither side wins a majority, would you support a unity gov't? 🟥Only if it's Opposition-led: 33% 🟦Only if it's Netanyahu-led: 19% ✅Yes, regardless of who leads: 9% ❌No: 23% via Lazar/Maariv, Oct. 19-22
— Israel Elects (@israel_elects) October 25, 2026

Those in the center strongly prefer a minority government (41%) over cross-bloc unity (23%) or new elections (25%).

On the left, only 16.5% said they would prefer a unity government, while 28% would want new elections, and over 40% would prefer a minority government.

Such a government could be formed by Eisenkot with the support of the “Change Bloc” parties, including Together, Yisrael Beiteinu and The Democrats. It would likely also need the support of the Reservists/Economic Party and outside backing from one of the Arab parties.

According to Israeli reports, Eisenkot could seek to form such a government to pass several laws with broad political support before calling new elections from a position of strength – allowing him to lead the caretaker government in the interim.